Mike Tuck's Top Twelve College Football Rankings (10-10-2011) Just two BCS busters remain
It is not the topic of conversation yet, but it will come into play by the time October ends: Who will bust up the BCS?
Unusually, only 2 teams remain in the conversation. Over the last 5 years, more and more teams attempted to create the double-bust scenario. In 2008, Boise State and Utah each went unbeaten (Ball State was 12-0 before being upset by Buffalo in the MAC Title game), but only Utah busted the BCS, and then Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Boise State was sent to the Poinsettia Bowl, where the lost a 17-16 game to TCU. In 2009 however, Boise State and TCU pulled it off, and upset many by being paired against one-another in the Fiesta Bowl, a game won by the Broncos.
Just Boise State and Houston remain. The Cougars don't have a high profile win, and would most certainly need a Broncos loss to get into the BCS conversation, and I am talking BCS Bowl, not title game. I think it's doubtful a 13-0 Conference USA champion team would even get into a BCS Bowl. Odds are better a two-loss power school, or even a 3-loss Notre Dame team would get the nod ahead of them. Boise State would almost assuredly get to a BCS Bowl at 12-0 based on reputation alone, but a BCS Title game will difficult even if nobody else is unbeaten.
Just something to think about as everyone is focused on the other 11 unbeatens.
1) LSU (6-0)- Going to Knoxville this week got much easier with QB Tyler Bray out for the Vols. Auburn at home will follow, then a bye before Bama.
2) Alabama (6-0)- The Tide have an easier run before meeting up with the Tigers, but do close at Auburn.
3) Clemson (6-0)- Tigers fans can breathe easy now that QB Taj Boyd is okay. 4 road games remain, and an unbeaten season isn't out of the question. The ACC Atlantic division looks to be a forgone conclusion at this hour with FSU losing again.
4) Oklahoma (5-0)- The Sooners have the toughest gauntlet to run, after Kansas this week their opponents are a combined 26-5 the rest of the way.
5) Kansas State (5-0)- The Wildcats get more impressive by the week, but the schedule will continue to test them in the Big XII. They've earned their ranking to this point.
6) Illinois (6-0)- The Illini get Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin all at home. Their toughest road test will be in Happy Valley.
7) Michigan (6-0)- The Wolverines had a terrific rally to win at Northwestern, and if they win at Michigan State this week, they should be unbeaten going into November.
8) Oklahoma State (5-0)- The Cowboys schedule is tougher than the Sooners to give you an idea after they just beat Kansas this past weekend.
9) Wisconsin (5-0)- Get another patsy this week with Indiana before finishing with 4 of 6 on the road. Then we'll find out if they deserve to be ranked higher.
10) Georgia Tech (6-0)- Jackets equally impressive as Badgers, but their best win has been against North Carolina. They have Miami, Clemson, and Virginia Tech in consecutive games so we'll know what they are made of.
11) Boise State (5-0)- Broncos need Georgia and Toledo and TCU to keep winning as they do the same.
12) Stanford (5-0)- The Cardinal opponents have a combined record of 10-19 and only Duke at 3-2 has a winning record so needless to say, it has to get more difficult.
Dropping Out: Nobody lost, nobody dropped out. Houston is the only unbeaten not in, and they are 13th. I have South Carolina as #14 and most impressive among the 1-loss teams.
Stiff-Arming Trophy Race: Every unbeaten team has 1-2 guys that could be included on the list. Obviously there are some guys on 1-loss teams that should get some love as well.
Around the State: I wrote 2 weeks ago what a sad state Florida was in, with only Florida and USF left in the championship chase, and predicting they'd be done by the end of the week, which they were. It actually has managed to get worse since then!
Florida- The Gators went up against the measuring sticks, and clearly aren't close. The SEC East is still winnable, but I'd have them as underdogs to both Georgia and South Carolina, just like I did before the year. At least somebody found Andre DeBose.
FSU- What is the old saying? You want to be the guy that follows the guy that had to follow the MAN? Jimbo starting to feel like the middle man after losing a third straight game. That top 5 preseason ranking seems like a long, long time ago.
Miami- When are members of the media going to stop giving Al Golden a pass? The University of Miami has dealt with a lot in the past 2 months, but this Miami football team has been largely unimpacted. 6 key players were lost in the Maryland game, but all returned the following week. Injuries have taken a toll, but it's been mostly more of the same for Canes fans. Miami is 2-3 and lost 3 winnable games. They failed to make the winning play in any. VT QB Logan Thomas had some high billing coming into the year, but was either oversold or underdelivered. The Canes defense made him look like Tom Brady. Miami has never won at North Carolina, and if they don't, 5-7 becomes a likely scenario.
UCF- Knights started fast, and played waterlogged the rest of the way against Marshall. The good news is the Knights are in 1st place in the East division of Conf USA. The bad news is the offense finally had their first TD pass, and if you take out the Charleston Southern game (0-5 as a DI-AA school), UCF is averaging a meager 18.25 points per game.
Worth Noting:
The new celebration penalty had its first victim...a punter? LSU P Brad Wing taunted Gators on his way to the endzone on a brilliant fake punt and had his TD removed. The Tigers would settle for a field goal, and obviously, it didn't matter in the outcome of the game. Uneasy feeling with that rule, but the coaches wanted it in, so let them deal with it the first time it costs a team a game.
Georgia had a 2nd and 56 against Tennessee after 3 holding calls and a facemask. They'd end up punting, surprising, I know.
Rutgers is in first place in the Big East.
Air Force says they didn't want to join the Big XII because their kids would get beat up against the better competition. They might want to stop playing Notre Dame too then based on what I saw this weekend.
I had Arizona's back until this weekend. They were 1-9 in their last ten games before losing to winless Oregon State. They needed to win that game. The others? Try this on: Oregon twice, Stanford twice, Oklahoma State twice, USC twice, and Arizona State. Good heavens. The only win was beating I-AA Northern Arizona.
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