Thursday, October 13, 2011

2011 Caulfield Cup Odds and Betting Preview: December Draw expected to take all the beating

CAULFIELD, AUSTRALIA -  Preparations for the hotly-anticipated Melbourne Cup step up a gear this weekend with the $2.5 million Caulfield Cup.

The 12 furlong race is one of the best preparation races for the Flemington showpiece, as well as the Cox Plate. Ethereal was the last horse to complete the famous double back in 2001, but this year plenty of punters will be hoping the highly-talented gelding December Draw can follow in the mare’s hoofprints.

Just last year the son of Medecis was contesting handicaps in the UK at the likes of Ffos Las and Lingfield, but now he is bidding to become the outright favourite for one of the most famous horse races in the world, the Melbourne Cup.

December Draw justified heavy support in the betting to win a Group Three race on his southern hemisphere debut at Caulfield last month, before going to beat another European import, Glass Harmonium , by a short head at Flemington in the Group One Turnbull Stakes two weeks ago.

The five-year-old is priced at 6/4 with Sky Bet and Boylesports to make a successful return to ‘The Heath’ on Saturday and capture its most historic race. December Draw has been handed trap 11 and is likely to start from barrier nine if the reserves are non-runners. Jockey Michael Rodd keeps the ride, and as things stand he can be backed at 10/1 with Paddy Power to win the Melbourne Cup on November 1.

His challengers include Lucas Cranach , who has a brilliant draw in three, but he is said to be suffering from a foot abscess so he may not run at Caulfield. He is a 7/1 shot with Ladbrokes to win for new trainer Anthony Freedman, and it is notable that he got to within six lengths of subsequent Arc winner Danedream on his last start in his native Germany. In previous months he has been backed into joint-favouritism for the Melbourne Cup at 10/1 with bet365 from a massive 40/1 back in August.

Green Moon is at 12/1 with bet365, who are paying out four places on each-way bets in the Caulfield Cup. Green Moon is by sire-of-the-moment Montjeu , but his best form in the UK was over 10 furlongs when he was trained by Harry Dunlop. He won at Newcastle last month but needs to improve again to trouble the favourite here, and he can be backed to win the Melbourne cup at 50/1 with Stan James.

One of a handful horses being backed against the favourite is Mighty High , who is 10/1 from 20/1 with bet365 to win for Hong Kong. Horses bred by the Aga Khan always deserve respect wherever they turn up, but no horse has won from barrier one since 1941. In any case he ran well in the Caulfield Stakes last weekend so he is one for the shortlist.

Absolutely is at 14/1 for Michael Kent and has been weak in the ante-post betting along with Tullamore , who is easy to back at 18/1 with bet365 and Victor Chandler for the Caulfield Cup.

Southern Speed is at 20/1 with Paddy Power and has the talent to run into a place, whilst Luca Cumani’s Drunken Sailor has to be feared at 20/1 with totesport, given that he has improved hugely since last coming to Australia, as his UK form with Harris Tweed and Await The Dawn reads very well indeed.

Cumani’s other raider is Manighar , who finished fourth to the outstanding Fame And Glory in this season’s Ascot Gold Cup. The grey is tempting at 25/1 with Boylesports, especially considering that Jukebox Jury and Kasbah Bliss have since boosted the Deauville form.

Finally the other runners shorter than 100/1 in the betting for the Caulfield Cup are: Hawk Island , Saptapadi , Precedence and Shootoff .

The race is due off at 4.05pm local time on Saturday 15 October, and UK punters can watch the race live on At The Races at 6.05am on Saturday.

Source: http://www.betasia.com

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