Thursday, October 20, 2011

Week 7 picks: Recovering Falcons have tools to pull upset

Mark Sanchez is the most criticized quarterback north of Tony Romo. But he hasn't been getting much help from his offensive line, running game or wide receivers. Something clicked, however, in the second half of the New York Jets' home win over the Miami Dolphins last week. So there's good reason to think the Jets will keep flying high this week as they play host to a better AFC opponent in Week 7:

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets. The Jets have their share of offensive struggles, but they're not dead in the AFC playoff race by any means— if they can win this game. The Chargers have to travel across the country, and this isn't the greatest matchup for them.

First, Darrelle Revis can take away wide receiver Vincent Jackson, and the Jets should feel equally comfortable with former Charger Antonio Cromartie in one-on-one coverage on the other side. Without a healthy Antonio Gates to worry about in the middle, the Jets can concentrate their safeties and linebackers on stopping the run and blitzing Philip Rivers. Also, you can't forget the fact that another former Charger, LaDainian Tomlinson, will be emotionally charged to spark a Jets backfield that has struggled with Shonn Greene in the feature role. Jets 26, Chargers 14.

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in London). We're exporting two teams that had huge Week 6 wins to England. The Bears have UK-sounding names in Jay Cutler and Devin Hester, but then the Bucs trump them with their unheralded wide receivers, Arrelious Benn, Dezmon Briscoe and, of course, Preston Parker. Those guys really helped Josh Freeman last week, and with LeGarrette Blount out, Tampa learned the importance of feeding Earnest Graham. Freeman's mobility will play a big part in eking out a win over Cutler late, making a certain Manchester United football fan—Bucs owner Malcolm Glazer—very happy. Buccaneers 23, Bears 20.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders. The Raiders better hope newly acquired Carson Palmer won't have too much rust as they face their well-rested arch rivals, who are coming off a bye. Credit the Chiefs for reinventing their offense without Jamaal Charles—and a big reason behind that has been the high level of play by another former Southern Cal quarterback. Matt Cassel has gotten into a groove with talented receivers Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston. The Chiefs also have found a back to help carry the load in Jackie Battle. All those factors, plus Palmer having a few chemistry issues with his offense early, should help the Chiefs win a physical fight. Chiefs 17, Raiders 14.

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints. This is a rematch of two Super Bowls ago, but there's a big difference this time around. Instead of dueling Peyton Manning, Drew Brees will go up against a fellow Purdue product, Curtis Painter. Painter can expect to see plenty of upfield aggressiveness from Gregg Williams' blitzing scheme in a dome that's far less comfortable than Indy’s home. Brees will use new favorite targets Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles to burn the Colts' two-deep coverage over and over again. Saints 41, Colts 14.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions. The Lions are having a little trouble with their run defense, and Michael Turner just warmed up with a big game last week against Carolina. He has similar power and burst to Frank Gore, who found plenty of room to run in Detroit. Another Falcon who's started to make an impact is former Vikings defensive end Ray Edwards, who's been effective in his edge pass rushing against the Lions in the past. The Falcons’ defense also has an underrated corner in Pro Bowler Brent Grimes, who will get a lot of help downfield on Calvin Johnson. Falcons 20, Lions 17.

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins. Tim Tebow and his fellow Gators will be feted in South Florida, but expect Cameron Wake and the desperate Dolphins defense to disrupt the party to get the team's first win. Brandon Marshall is playing with attitude, and you can bet he'll have plenty of it on display—in a good way—to burn his former team's secondary. Dolphins 17, Broncos 13.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans. The Titans should be considered the new AFC South favorites because they're both healthier and better defensively than the Texans. In the QB matchup of Matts, Hasselbeck will outduel Schaub, with plenty of help from Chris Johnson. Without help from Andre Johnson and with a running game that will be slowed down by Tennessee, Schaub will be stuck in an unenviable situation of trailing in the second half on the road. Titans 23, Texans 19.

Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns. Browns president Mike Holmgren will want this one over the team he used to coach, and Browns coach Pat Shurmur will help make that happen by pushing all the right buttons in his offense. It's time for the Browns to give youngsters Greg Little and Montario Hardesty bigger roles so that Colt McCoy has more ways of moving the ball. Marshawn Lynch will keep the Seahawks in it, but their QB uncertainty will take them out of it late. Browns 24, Seahawks 20.

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers. The Redskins will try to run to help new starting QB John Beck, but you can bet the Panthers will focus on that with their new 3-4 defensive looks and force Beck to beat them. Facing Brian Orakpo and a good Redskins attack defense, Cam Newton will have his second ugly game of the season. But just like the other one (against Jacksonville), he will come out victorious. Panthers 16, Redskins 13.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals. It's your second recent Super Bowl rematch of the week, and just like the Saints over the Colts, it will be the Steelers getting the better of the Cardinals again. Pittsburgh's defense will allow some big plays to former Pitt wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, but eventually they will cause Kevin Kolb to break. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't have Santonio Holmes to lift his team this time, but he'll do just fine hitting speedster Mike Wallace downfield. Steelers 27, Cardinals 17.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings. Rookie Christian Ponder will struggle in his first NFL start, given the fact he'll face a swarming Packers defense on the fast track of his home dome. You can bet the Vikings will lean heavily on Adrian Peterson, but considering Peterson will be up against B.J. Raji and the Packers’ strong front seven, he won’t help enough. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers will put on another air show before the Packers hit their bye week at 7-0. Packers 34, Vikings 14.

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys. New Rams receiver Brandon Lloyd steps into a good matchup with the Cowboys' defensive backs, but quarterback Sam Bradford (ankle sprain) is banged up and will feel consistent heat from DeMarcus Ware. On the other side, Tony Romo and the Cowboys' offense won't hold back the reins, relying on the pass early to set up plenty of second half running by rookie DeMarco Murray . Cowboys 34, Rams 10.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars. Note to Monday Night Football producers: Stop scheduling these obviously lopsided games. Jags rookie Blaine Gabbert will face a heavy 3-4 pass rush and a Ravens veteran defense hungry for takeaways. At least this game has a fun story line with the battle of mighty mite running backs Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. Ravens 38, Jaguars 13.

Buffalo Bills (4-2): The Bills must get healthy on defense to maintain their precarious wild-card position. They've got a couple tough home games coming up (vs. the Redskins in Toronto, vs. the Jets) before facing a talented Cowboys offense on the road in Week 10.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2): The Bengals are sitting pretty in the playoff chase, even stuck in a division with the Ravens and Steelers. If they can hold their own in their AFC North battles, they’ll be in good shape considering they have three NFC West matchups (at Seattle, at St. Louis, vs. Arizona) left on the schedule.

New England Patriots (5-1): They have some interesting matchups, with the Steelers, Jets, Giants, Chiefs (vs. Matt Cassel), Eagles and Colts, through Week 13. If they go just 4-2 during the stretch, they'll be headed for another AFC top seed.

New York Giants (4-2): It was important to get their running game back on track before the bye. Outside of the always-brutal NFC East slate, they still have to play the Patriots, 49ers, Saints, Packers and Jets. Ouch.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-4). Expect a much better and more consistent Eagles team coming out of the bye, as Andy Reid will make adjustments and get his team ready. The good news is the Eagles have three straight home games—against Dallas, Chicago and Arizona—after the week off.

San Francisco 49ers (5-1). The Niners don't really need to sweat too much about winning the NFC West, but they need to get tougher to make sure they can secure a bye—which they currently hold as the No. 2 seed behind the Packers.

Source: http://aol.sportingnews.com

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