The Big 12 waits on Missouri, and Big 12 fans wait on expansion. The two decisions are not mutually exclusive.
While Missouri ponders whether to stay in the Big 12 or go to the SEC, the Big 12 is trying to decide whether to stay at 10 schools, like it has in 2011, or 12, like it had from 1996 through 2010. Some ask a legitimate question: Why does the Big 12 have to wait on Missouri? Shouldn’t the Big 12, if it’s going to go to 12, act soon so that its expansion candidates aren’t gobbled up?
I think the answer to the latter question is not necessarily. I see only one legitimate prospect that could be snatched up by a league. That’s Boise State, which seems to be flirting with the Big East, which makes no geographic sense but might make a lot of BCS automatic-qualifying sense.
Brigham Young isn’t going anywhere, including perhaps to the Big 12. BYU might decide independence is just fine.
And where are West Virginia and Louisville and Cincinnati going? Are they going to commit to the Big East when a potential Big 12 offer could come? I don’t think so. So there’s no great hurry.
I personally think the Big 12 is looking more east than west. And I think the Big 12, before making any other offers, would like to know what it’s dealing with concerning Mizzou, which means waiting.
If Missouri stays, the Big 12 has a compact, historically-bound, albeit weakened, league. If Missouri stays, it’s much more likely the Big 12 stays at 10. It would make the most financial sense, since no other school with the possible exception of BYU would bring enough television cred to the table to warrant cutting an extra piece of pie or two.
Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds long has stated he prefers a 10-team league. That’s because of the television contracts. Just because Texas has more money than everyone else doesn’t mean Texas likes it giving it away. And heck, it’s possible some of the lower-funded athletic programs — Iowa State, Baylor — prefer 10, too, for financial reasons.
Presidents Burns Hargis at OSU and David Boren at OU are on record as supporting a return to 12 schools, with divisional play and a championship game. They believe — as I do — that a return to 12 enhances the league’s stability and credibility. So we’ll see how that negotiating goes.
The tide turns if Missouri leaves. If Mizzou goes, the Big 12 would lose geographic compactness no matter the replacement (unless it’s Houston, which would be over Texas’ dead body). So it would create more synergy to go from nine to 12. Add West Virginia, Louisville and Cincinnati. Replace Missouri with just one of those schools, and the new school would be on an island. Replace with three, and it would be like an eastern wing of the Big 12. Or heck, West. You could add BYU, Boise State and, ideally, Air Force, though the Falcons don’t seem to want to come.
I hope the Big 12 goes to 12 schools. I hope Missouri stays.
But if Missouri stays, the Big 12 is more likely to stay at 10.
------------- Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel. Visit Berry's new website here.
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