Normally I'm a "draft two RBs ASAP" kinda guy, but after a few mock drafts and two real ones last weekend, I'm rethinking that conventional wisdom.
In ouron Aug. 10 (new mock coming Thursday), I drafted Adrian Peterson No. 1 overall, then snagged Greg Jennings and Matt Fore with the swings picks in Rounds 2-3. Little did I know that Knowshon Moreno would still be sitting there when I was trying to decide how to spend the with the 48th-overall pick in the fourth round. I could have doubled up on WRs in Rounds 2-3 and still landed a solid RB2 in Moreno. Lesson learned?
I put this theory to the test in a pair of friendly-yet-competitive 12-team PPR leagues this past weekend. In the first draft I drew the No. 4 pick; in the other, I selected 10th. Here's what happened:
No shocker at No. 4 -- I took Jamaal Charles . Hey, I'm still a proponent of drafting RBs, especially that early. But with an elite RB onboard, I went with the Philip Rivers - Vincent Jackson combo in Rounds 2-3. That left me with DeAngelo Williams and Moreno in Rounds 4 and 5, respectively (we start three WRs, two RBs and a RB/WR flex). Not a bad stable of PPR backs. Mark Ingram , Cedric Benson and Ryan Mathews went even later.
For the next draft, I decided to really test the RB market. Drafting from the No. 10 spot with the elite PPR backs gone (including breakout candidate Darren McFadden ), I took Roddy White , followed by Michael Vick at No. 15. Even bypassing RBs with the first two picks, I ended up with Frank Gore and Felix Jones as my starting RBs. A few other RBs available around those picks were Moreno and Williams (again), along with Ahmad Bradshaw . Pretty solid value for Rounds 3-4.
After seeing these results, I think owners can't wait on a No. 2 RB until Rounds 3-5, especially in leagues that require three starting WRs and just two RBs. As we see more teams rely on the pass and split the carries, fantasy owners are letting RBs with solid value slip while they go QB-WR or even WR-WR in the first two rounds. I suggest playing it safe with one RB in either of the first two rounds, then seeing what kind of RB2 value falls to you in Rounds 3-5. You might be pleasantly surprised.
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