If you're in a keeper league, you realize the value of identifying undervalued players as quickly as possible -- it's easier to acquire these hidden gems if you're the only one in your league with the inside track on their 2011 performance. Even if you’re not in a keeper league, getting the biggest return on your draft picks usually involves snagging a good player late in the draft—allowing you to use your earlier picks to select known producers.
I took a few minutes to see if the Sports Grumblings® supercomputer, Mighty Max, could be tweaked to unearth some of those hidden gems. As is usually the case, the results were eye opening and provided some excellent insight.
I decided to use the following criteria for my search parameters:
A three-year view of the stats (for stability) Players whose performance had improved each year (for quality) Fantasy scores which exceeded the positional average in 2010 (for significance)
Mighty Max was able to highlight several players likely to continue their upward trends. A few may be familiar, others not; according to Max, all of them will likely improve their performances in 2011.
As with all statistical analysis applied to human actions, it is not enough to just look at the numbers. You need to have an understanding of the situation of each player.
Here's the resulting set of players Max believes will continue to post improved fantasy numbers in 2011:
Defensive Linemen
The life of a fantasy defensive lineman, once you get past the Justin Tuck and Jared Allen-level players, is pretty tame. They toil in anonymity, with only the sack masters getting any of the spotlight. But for fantasy purposes, guys like Dwight Freeney get a lot of sacks and nothing else. Look at the list above—some solid vets on it, like Kyle Vanden Bosch and Raheem Brock. There’s even a few touted youngsters, like Glenn Dorsey. But I’m looking at unheralded guys Ahtyba Rubin, Kyle Williams and Calais Campbell—they’ll provide DL1 production but at DL3 prices.
With the exception of Guyton and Boley, all the guys on this list are legit IDP performers that deserve to be on most rosters. Two observations that really surprise me: Paul Posluszny qualified for this list despite all the injuries he’s suffered the last three seasons; if he stays healthy in Jacksonville, he can really blow it up in 2011; perhaps even more surprising, Ray Lewis defied age once again to produce a great season in 2010—and has my complete confidence in being outstanding once again in 2011.
· With DBs, my first rule of thumb is to ignore the guys whose production was tied mainly to interceptions. Why? Because you can’t count on them grabbing INTs year in, year out.
· My second rule of thumb is to prefer safeties over corners (with rare exception). Safeties tend to make their money by making tackles, not interceptions; INTs are gravy for them.
Given my two rules, I really like Donte Whitner, Adrian Wilson and Chris Hope this season as guys to improve upon last year’s performances. Dawan Landry makes the cut in large part to his bouncing back from a serious injury in 2008, but he is a talented player that is moving to a team (Jacksonville) that figures to have its defense on the field a lot in 2011. So Landry becomes a value play late in drafts or as an early waiver wire pick up.
There you have it, an early look at the "Incredible IDPs" for 2011. Of course, situations change as teams go through final roster cuts, so make it a point to keep visiting Sports Grumblings for the latest and greatest fantasy news.
Until next time, remember to keep your facemask up and never, ever forget to wrap up.
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