Goodbye, offseason. Hello, football.
The 2011 season is finally within sight. While these past seven months have felt like a lifetime, the next four or five will likely be gone in the blink of an eye. With a nine-game conference schedule, non-conference games are cut from four to three, but they’re all still vitally important. Losses mean more in college football than any American sport, and teams especially want to avoid being eliminated from the national title hunt in the season’s first week. In the opening half of our weekly scouting reports, we take a look at the Big 12’s first five teams in alphabetical order. Included is the conference’s game of the week, a rivalry matchup between the Baylor Bears and the TCU Horned Frogs. While many other teams have cupcakes on the schedule during the season’s first week, Art Briles and Robert Griffin may face their stiffest defensive challenge of the season.
TCU Outlook:
This will be a much different team than the one that crushed the Bears in Fort Worth last season. 26 lettermen depart from TCU’s Rose Bowl-winning squad, including four-year starting quarterback Andy Dalton. Sophomore Casey Pachall will start for the Frogs, but he has only thrown nine passes in his college career. Redshirt freshman Matt Brown could also see some time after making huge strides in fall camp. TCU is once again loaded at running back, with four players who could start at almost any other school in the country. The lead back is junior Ed Wesley, who ran for over 1,000 yards despite battling injury for much of the second half of last season. The Frogs will rely on a number of young receivers, including as many as four true freshmen. The clear leader of the group is sophomore Josh Boyce, who never drops passes and never stops talking. Brandon Carter, who starred for Euless Trinity high school for much of the past two years, is slated to start at one receiver spot. Much of TCU’s success offensively depends on the line, and the Frogs have a totally revamped front five. Four starters from last season are gone, and tackle Jeff Olson has been moved from the right side of the line to the left to protect Pachall’s blind side. Former tight end Robert Deck is slated to start at right tackle.
Defensively, many of the same questions have to be asked of the Frogs. Lack of experience is TCU’s biggest weakness, especially in the secondary. Tejay Johnson is gone after starting at free safety for the past three seasons. Johnson occupied the most important individual spot on the defense. In his place steps senior Johnny Fobbs. Weak safety Tekerrein Cuba is one of four senior starters for the defense, but he did not get major experience until midway through last season when Collin Jones was injured. Senior Greg McCoy is solid at one cornerback spot, but the other will feature a rotation between sophomore Travaras Battle and junior college transfer Jason Verrett, who turned heads as an early enrollee during the spring. TCU has one of the strongest linebacking corps in the nation with Tank Carder and Tanner Brock. Patterson mentioned backup Kenny Cain as one of the best players during fall camp. While the defensive line appears small – no starter eclipses 300 pounds – every player has superior strength and there should be a steady rotation at three of the four positions.
Names to watch:
WR Skye Dawson – The junior gave up track to focus solely on football, and is the fastest player on the TCU roster. Baylor will have a tough time finding anyone who can stick with Dawson step-for-step, either in the slot or in the punt and kick return games.
S Sam Carter – Carter is one of many former high school quarterbacks who have been converted to defense by Gary Patterson. At 6’1” and 210 pounds, the redshirt freshman has tantalizing athleticism. However, he will be playing in his first game at safety in a hostile environment.
DE Stansly Maponga – The freshman All-American has battled through a few bumps and bruises this offseason, but looks to emerge as a premier-pass rushing threat in 2011. He will have the ever-dangerous Robert Griffin in his crosshairs throughout Friday night.
Keys to a Baylor victory :
1) Shut down the run : The Frogs were able to move the ball however they wanted last season, but tailback Ed Wesley found it especially easy, racing for 165 yards on 19 carries. If Baylor can manage to stop TCU from gaining solid yardage on the ground on first and second downs, Pachall will be put in uncomfortable situations and could turn the ball over.
2) Tone down the penalties : Baylor was one of the worst teams in the country when it came to drawing flags. The Bears had 8.3 accepted penalties per game called against them last season. Regardless of the opponent or the location of the game, BU cannot afford to shoot itself in the foot against such a talented team.
3) Super special teams : TCU has been able to find outstanding return men for most of Gary Patterson’s tenure. Skye Dawson takes over Jeremy Kerley’s spot, and on the only punt he has returned to this point in his career, Dawson gained 25 yards. The Bears will have to be outstanding in their coverage of kicks and punts, or else field position will swing decidedly in TCU’s favor.
Prediction – 30-17, TCU . This probably won’t be a replay of last year’s game. Baylor will want revenge and will have as much of a home field advantage as Floyd Casey Stadium can provide. TCU is bringing in an extremely young team to a nationally televised game on the road. In the end, I think Baylor will experience some growing pains defensively and the Frogs will do just enough to contain Robert Griffin. TCU pulls away late for its fourth consecutive victory over Baylor.
Even though they reside in the lower subdivision within Division I, the Panthers have a proud football tradition. UNI reached the semi-finals of the FCS playoffs in 2008 before falling to eventual champion Richmond. Last season, Northern Iowa finished 7-5 and lost in the first round of the FCS tournament. However, the Panthers return plenty of talent this year and are ranked seventh in the FCS coaches’ poll and fourth by Phil Steele. Senior quarterback Tirrell Rennie, who split time with Zach Davis during UNI’s matchup with Iowa State last season, returns for his final year. Rennie ran for over 100 yards per game last season. Nine of UNI’s top ten tacklers from last season return as well. The rush defense was a very strong point for the Panthers last season, as they led the conference in running yards allowed. UNI struggled for most of the year against the pass, ranking 106th in yards allowed through the air. However, the Cyclones did struggle to move the ball against the Panthers, as they only scored one offensive touchdown in their 27-0 victory in Ames. Dynamic junior college transfer Steele Jantz has taken the reigns for Iowa State, and fans hope he can ignite an offense which ranked 97th in the country in yards per game.
Prediction: 28-13, Iowa State . The Panthers will provide a tough challenge, but Jantz will make things happen with his feet as well as his arm, and ISU gets some timely defensive plays to get the season-opening victory over UNI.
Jayhawk fans don’t need to be reminded about the awful way the season started last year: with a 6-3 loss to North Dakota State. The Bison were actually a very solid FCS team, and took eventual national champs Eastern Washington to overtime before bowing out of the playoffs. NDSU is ranked 11th in this year’s coaches poll…only nine spots above the McNeese State Cowboys, who are 20th.
McNeese will be led by sophomore quarterback Cody Stroud, who played in eight games last season. Stroud will be backed up by junior Riley Dodge, a transfer from North Texas where his father, Todd, was the head coach. The Cowboys will try to keep the ball on the ground offensively, and their quarterbacks aren’t afraid of keeping the ball and running with it either. The key for Stroud will be avoiding turnovers. In McNeese’s six victories last season, the quarterbacks only threw one interceptions. In the Cowboys’ five losses, they threw a combined 12 picks.
The McNeese defense finished first in the Southland Conference in yards allowed per game. However, the secondary struggled at times and gave up 230 yards per game through the air. While the Cowboys may not provide quite as stiff a test for the Jayhawks as the Bison did, they still won’t be a typical FCS pushover.
Prediction: 26-7, Kansas . Sophomore quarterback Jordan Webb will experience a few more growing pains, but the much-improved KU defensive line will make life miserable for the McNeese offense. It probably won’t be pretty, but the Jayhawks should begin the season on a positive note.
Kansas State’s scheduling patterns haven’t changed any in Bill Snyder’s second go-around as head coach. KSU will fatten up on a schedule of cupcakes early in the season before running into one big non-conference opponent (Miami) heading into the Big 12 schedule. The Colonels aren’t necessarily a pushover, as they finished with a 6-5 record last season and gave Louisville a good fight before falling 23-13. EKU heads into the 2011 season outside of the FCS coaches’ top 25, but receiving votes in the poll.
The Colonels operate out of a spread offense, but prefer to run the ball. They really struggled to protect the passer, finishing 112th in the FCS in sacks allowed per game. Junior quarterback T.J Pryor returns for EKU after starting every game for the past two seasons. Pryor really picked up his ground game toward the end of last year, as he topped 60 yards in each of the final four games, including a 100-yard effort in a victory over Tennessee Tech. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Colonels own all four of their final games.
Defensively, much like the other FCS teams taking on Big 12 competition in the opening week, EKU struggled to defend the pass but played competent defense against the run. Leading tackler Patrick McClellan returns for his third year as a starter at safety. McClellan is familiar with new defensive coordinator Tony Hatmaker because Hatmaker spent the last three years coaching the defensive backs at EKU. The Colonels got beaten pretty thoroughly by Missouri State in last year’s season opener, and in turn, MSU traveled to Manhattan the next week and was soundly defeated by Bill Snyder’s Wildcats. Though EKU should be improved, K-State should take care of business without too much trouble.
Prediction: 42-10, Kansas State . Collin Klein will get a good opportunity to grow into the starting quarterback role against a team that gave up 244 yards per game through the air last season. KSU is still short on bodies, but the talent difference is pretty clear.
Despite the loss of major playmakers on both sides of the ball, there are still big expectations in Columbia. Mizzou is confident it can soldier on despite losing two top-ten NFL Draft picks in defensive end Aldon Smith and quarterback Blaine Gabbert. They open the season against the defending MAC champion Redhawks. While Miami has several key components of last year’s team returning, head coach Mike Haywood is gone. Haywood accepted the head coaching job at Pittsburgh, but a domestic violence charge forced him away from the game. To replace Haywood, Miami hired Michigan State offensive coordinator Don Treadwell. Last season, Treadwell got some head coaching experience when Mark Dantonio suffered a heart attack and had to step away for a month.
Miami quarterback Zac Dysert started the first ten games of the season before suffering a rib injury. Dysert passed for 2,406 yards and 13 touchdowns, but also threw 12 interceptions. Dysert was replaced by Austin Boucher, who won all four of his starts for the Redhawks. Treadwell named Dysert as a captain for the upcoming season, and he should be starting when Miami enters Faurot Field. Whoever plays quarterback will have leading receiver Armand Robinson to throw to. Robinson caught 94 passes for over 1,000 yards last year as a junior. The biggest hole to fill is at running back, where leading rusher Thomas Merriweather moved on after gaining 921 yards in 2010. At Michigan State, Treadwell focused on maintaining a downhill ground game and an under-center passing attack that emphasizes play action and stretching the field vertically.
Defensively, nine starters return from a unit which forced 35 turnovers last season, the fourth-highest total in FBS. Linebacker Jerrell Wedge, who led the team with 101 tackles, returns for his senior season. The Redhawks did an excellent job of attacking the line of scrimmage, as they ranked second in the conference in both tackles for loss and sacks. Cornerback Dayonne Nunley and linebacker Evan Harris – who both intercepted six passes last season – return for the 2011 campaign. Miami will try and put as much pressure as possible on new Tiger quarterback James Franklin.
Prediction: 34-14, Missouri. This game may be closer than Mizzou fans are hoping. The Tigers pounced on the Redhawks from the get-go last season and never let up, winning 51-13. But Miami is much more experienced with 17 starters returning and two proven quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Missouri quarterback James Franklin will be making the first start of his career. The Tigers may start slow, but they should pull away and claim the victory.
Source:
No comments:
Post a Comment