HOUSTON - Well…it looks as though it’s that time of the year again. The time for me to do what I’ve done for the past nine seasons—the time for me to again provide all of the reasons why I don’t believe the Texans will be good enough to make the playoffs. But this season I have a surprise: The Texans are indeed talented enough and— it appears just lucky enough— to become a playoff team in 2011. In case you’re wondering if I have historically had a good pulse on this team, you can check out my 2009 and 2010 season previews.
Someone has to win the AFC South, right?
Why not the Texans? Outside of the NFC West, the AFC South is perhaps the worst division in the NFL. There will be no wild card coming from the AFC South. It’s either beat out the Colts or stay home. I judge teams prominently by three major criteria: 1) Quarterback play. 2) Coaching. 3) Overcoming the “If's”. Luckily, the Texans play in a division saturated by poor coaching, bad quarterback play and plenty of “Ifs”.
First up, the Titans: The Titans not only have a brand new coach who will be trying to clean up a huge mess in Mike Munchak. But for all intents and purposes, they will also be forced to play rookie first round draft pick, Jake Locker, at some point this season. You can’t believe that the 35 year-old Matt Hasselback will play as well as he did against the Saints during the playoffs last season and also remain healthy for all 16 games in 2011, do you?
As for Jacksonville: Jack Del Rio may be the only coach in the league who carries more of a stench of failure than Gary Kubiak. And he’s at least led his team to the playoffs once. Del Rio is a mess and will probably be fired midway through the season. The Jaguars did absolutely nothing to improve their team during the offseason other than the drafting of rookie quarterback, Wayne Gabbert, who will replace the erratic David Gerrard at some point into the season. But Gabbert isn’t likely to pay dividends for the Jaguars for at least another two to three years.
This brings me to the descending Colts: The Colts have had one of the all-time great runs of supremacy in NFL history. Great teams can’t stay on top forever. It’s simply the law of the land. They have missed badly with their past few draft classes and have too many players on the decline who are making too much money. Plus, they always wear down in the playoffs by holding true to their philosophy of relying on speed and agility instead of size and strength.
As for Manning, I’m betting on the legendary signal caller to overcome his latest injury and keep the Colts relevant towards the back end of 2011, but I now believe that his best days are behind him. The future HOF likely blew his last chance for glory when he served up that game-clinching interception to Tracy Porter in the Super Bowl a few seasons back. He’s now 35 and will no longer be capable of covering up the Colts’ shortcomings as he’s done in years past. It’s not unfathomable that we might now start to see more of the Peyton who threw 14 interceptions over a four-game stretch at one point last season. It’s now highly probable that he’ll miss a chunk of the 2011 season due to his persistent neck troubles. Colts head coach, Jim Caldwell, appears to be overwhelmed in his duties. His leadership and game management skills are very questionable and I don’t believe Peyton has any confidence in the man as a head coach.
1) Schaub doesn’t need to have MVP numbers, but he must play like a MVP when it really matters. Great leaders lead when the going gets tough and provide a lift when his team needs one. All the pretty stats don’t matter if the Texans again miss the playoffs. Schaub’s biggest malady last season was the inability to consistently lead his offense to scores early and wound up placing too much pressure on an already-questionable defense. The Texans offense started slowly in eight of their first ten games last season, thus allowing way too much pressure to be placed upon their young and impressionable defense. Then, after starting fast against San Diego and Dallas, he failed to spark his team during the third and fourth quarters. Trust, me, defenses often feed off of the attitude and confidence of their quarterback.
2) Andre Johnson needs to become more of a leader. He’s now 30 and badly needs the opportunity to showcase his talents during the playoffs to cement his HOF bid. It was refreshing to hear him challenge Mario Williams a few weeks back, but he needs to this more often.
3) The defense will get after opposing quarterbacks and will be improved mainly because things can only go up from here. Playing good defense is not all about stats, but more so about getting stops at crucial moments to save games and equip their offense with additional chances to get back on the field. Mario has to be the leader of this defense whether he wants to or not. He’s the most talented player and the Texans’ most intimidating defensive force. Teams truly do have to account for him on each play. It’s time to for him to learn how to play though injuries.
4) Kubiak and his coaching staff will have their work cut out for them. I don’t have any confidence in this guy as a leader, but it really only matters how his players feel. We know they like him, but do they believe in him as a leader? I’m not sure that they do.
5) Injuries are always a key in professional sports. The Texans have managed to avoid cataclysmic injuries over the past few years and have remained one of the more injury-free teams in the league over the past three seasons. Even losing Foster for a few games won’t hurt them all that much. But they have to keep Schaub healthy. He’s the only player (including AJ) that they can ill-afford to lose for more than a few games.
6) How much will Peyton’s injury affect the Colts? Peyton is not only the face of the Colts, but he’s still the face of the NFL (with Brady being 1A). All indications are he will not be ready for the start of the season; which means a guaranteed Texans victory over the decrepit Kerry Collins at the helm for the visiting Colts. Missed games from Manning coupled with an already-fading team could be just what the doctor ordered for the Texans.
“To be or not to be” will be the immortal phrase that will haunt Texans quarterback Matt Schaub more than anything else this year. Success in the national football league is determined by the status of a teams ’quarterback more than any other position in professional sports. Other than the ’85 Bears, no other Super Bowl winner has done so without their quarterback standing tall to make defining plays at some point during the season. Sure, Jim McMahon was no Dan Marino, but his gritty personality and impassioned spirit blended perfectly with that Bears team. I do admit however, that a more talented quarterback would have led that Bears team to at least one or two more Super Bowl victories. Others will challenge the notion that Trent Dilfer was nothing more than a game manager during the Ravens during their run to the title 2000, but in his defense, Dilfer was called upon on numerous occasions that season to rally his offensive cohorts to victory after taking over for ex-Texan, Tony Banks.
We all know Schaub can get the job done and though I don’t include him on my top ten list, there are still only 8 or 9 other quarterbacks that I would unequivocally trade him for to start the season if given the choice. No other NFL QB has thrown for more than Schaub over the past two seasons. He even demonstrated his toughness by starting all 16 games in 2011, despite being banged up down the stretch. A quarterback shouldn’t have to bear all of the blame when his team doesn’t reach its goals, but Schaub is in a very interesting position. He’s a guy that is blessed with the good fortune of having tremendous offensive tools around him and plays in what has suddenly become a downtrodden division. It’s not inconceivable that he’ll be the best quarterback in the division this season (including Manning). And, he’s the leader of a team that many believe has truly turned the corner; mainly because of some good-looking off season moves and the signing of the venerable Wade Phillips to revamp a pungent defense. Schaubs’ leadership mantle has certainly come to question over the years. He’s made bad decisions at crucial moments and although he appears to be well-liked and well-respected by his teammates, he doesn’t appear to emanate that indefinable “It” quality that many of the top-flight quarterbacks possess. A quarterback takes on the personality of his head coach more than any other position on the team. Schaub and Kubiak are inextricably intertwined and both have a lot riding on this season. The pressure of the season was already going to be high, but will now rate of seismic proportions due to Manning’s health status. Neither man has proven to possess the mettle to handle pressure very well.
The defense will without question be improved to some degree with Phillips in the fold. However, don’t expect the resurrection of the Chicago Bears “46” circa 1985. Wade Phillips has a track record of stability as a defensive coordinator, but had trouble motivating his Cowboy defense last season; a unit that even gave up more total points than the pathetic Texans did. Mario Williams needs to rebound and have a great year to anchor the defense. His sack totals rank amongst the league leaders over the past four seasons, although his overall expectations as a overall number one draft selection has to be considered a bit of a disappointment since six years in, the Texans defense is still in a quandary. It’s not all his fault, but great players are expected to elevate the play of those around them.
The Texans have the talent to win 12 games this season, but I expect them to manage 10.
I’m one who believed that the team needed an infusion of new blood from the top; starting with Gary Kubiak, but Bob McNair brought his man back and the fans will have to deal with it for at least another season if not more.
The schedule will be more challenging starting out, but it’s still rather manageable. I’m predicting early wins over Indianapolis, Miami and Oakland, Jacksonville and Cleveland against losses to New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Baltimore to start the season. The first season-defining contest will be on the road at Tennessee to take on the Titans in week 7; a game that the Texans simply must have. No one expects them to go on the road and defeat a well-coached and well-quarterback Tampa Bay team, so according to the math, this would leave them at 6-4 heading into their bye week.
On paper, it appears that the remaining six games will be a cakewalk, but remember, these are still the Texans. I assure you, there will still be stretches of incompetence as we’ve seen for 9 seasons now. They’ll get tripped up by either Jacksonville (with a rookie QB) or by Cincinnati (as Carson Palmer returns and has his best game in years) and jeopardize their grip on the division at some point of the season. It’s just what the Texans do. But I’m not sure that even the Texans can find a way to squander the golden opportunity that has been laid right at their feet. The only other probable loss will perhaps come at the hands of the Falcons, who visit Reliant in early December.
My prediction: 10-6, thanks mainly due to the blessing of Manning’s injury coupled by the ineptitude of a horrible division. It may be a cheapened way to earn a division title, but it still counts. It takes good fortune to be successful in professional sports.
The NFL is defined by storylines each season. The big question is: Are the Texans capable of carving out a great script for themselves? This season should be about making a serious playoff run and not only just getting there. The only guy who might be fretting Peyton’s injury just a little bit might be Gary Kubiak. With Peyton out to start the season and likely not to be at 100 percent anytime soon, the Texans will have absolutely zero excuses to not win this division. I do however believe that the Texans are entering the season with fewer “Ifs” than any other team in the division and on that note, it has to be their year. I think the Colts will come to realize that they probably ended up signing the wrong ex-Titans quarterback as they will lose twice to the Texans for the first time and lose the division by one game.
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