Here we are one week into the 2011 NFL season and already there is mass speculation about the 2012 draft, prompted by Bill Polian’s whereabouts the day before his Indianapolis Colts sans Peyton Manning were walloped by the Houston Texans last Sunday.
Polian, the Colts’ vice-chairman, was in Durham, N.C., on Sept. 10. So was his son, Brian, the assistant special teams coordinator for the Stanford Cardinal, who happened to be playing at Duke. But if Stanford was in town, so was quarterback Andrew Luck, who may well have been the No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft had he not opted to remain in school.
Immediately, some began putting three and one together and coming up with bingo. Three is the number of neck surgeries Manning has had in the past 19 months. One is the top pick in next spring’s draft.
And everyone knows you need Luck to win at bingo.
Polian may have gone to Durham to see his son, and while there decided he would take a look at the quarterback with many similarities to his sidelined four-time MVP. Both are extremely gifted passers, top-flight leaders, bright and personable fellows. Luck’s father, Oliver, played in the NFL, although his playing portfolio (20 games, nine starts in four seasons with the Oilers) was a lot thinner than the one compiled by Peyton’s dad, Archie (151 games, 137 starts in 13 seasons with three teams).
There’s little doubt a healthy Manning would preclude the Colts from getting any shot at drafting Luck, unless Polian and his other son, Chris, now the team’s general manager, are willing to trade a boatload of draft picks to soar up in the first round.
But with Manning out for most if not all of 2011, and based on their showing against the Texans, the Colts could be in the running for that top pick. Or at least be in position where they could comfortably move up a few spots via a deal.
Kerry Collins has been brought in to try to stabilize things, but his late arrival has hurt his chances for immediate success. Curtis Painter has been Manning’s backup, and while he’s shown a flash or two, he doesn’t appear to be the long-term answer.
So Indianapolis could be in a similar situation as it was in 1998, when it had the first pick and the choice between Manning and Ryan Leaf to become its franchise quarterback. Manning won the lottery, and so did the Colts, big time. But if Manning does not play another down, and the Colts don’t do anything about finding a long-term replacement, Indianapolis again will be known only for “Gentlemen, start your engines.”
The Colts, with their presence in the AFC South, have two games each with Tennessee and Jacksonville, plus meetings with the three Low C’s, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Carolina. That alone should provide a few wins.
They also must face Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, New England, Baltimore and Houston (again) before the schedule concludes. So when the dust finally clears, Indy may be in position to grab a top young quarterback to replace one of the game’s true legends.
Let’s not close the book on Manning just yet. He is the ultimate competitor, and if there is any way he can make it back on the field, No. 18 will be under center again. The neck operations, however, make the forecast cloudy for his return.
But the man who started 227 straight games, including playoff contests, before missing last Sunday’s debacle finally has shown some signs of wear. Even if he makes it back and plays at a high level in 2012, the Polians might want to use this potentially dreadful season to get a player like Luck if they make a rare appearance in the top part of the draft.
Possible local repercussion to the Manning saga: We all know how close he is to younger brother, Eli, whose play for the Giants has not been up to par during preseason and first week of the regular season. Could the problems big brother is encountering also be troubling to Eli and affecting his concentration on his own game?
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