This is my 20th annual NFL mock draft for The Miami Herald, and so I can state with more than a little confidence that I am as experienced and as much an authority as anyone in the nation at being wrong. I mean, dead wrong. What-was-he-smoking wrong. I don’t even count that one year I had TV’s Bea Arthur going to the Dolphins in the first round because that was just plain bad info from an embittered source. (Although Bea did have impressive size and a decent 40 time in sensible shoes.)
The thing with mock drafts in general is that there is only one way to be right and countless ways to be wrong. Much goes into crafting a quality mock, such as weeks of painstaking research, interviews with scouts and general managers, scrutiny of game films and intricate analysis of data. I keep meaning to try some of that someday. Then again, what good does all that do Mel Kiper Jr?
So, I will just stick with my time-tested formula of educated guesswork and dumb luck, augmented by a fresh bottle of Captain Morgan and a splay of dog-eared tarot cards. My career track record falls between 75 to 80 percent on first-round picks overall, with 20 to 25 percent bull’s-eyes, meaning exact players to exact teams. I’m not lying. If I were, trust me, the numbers would be much more impressive. The draft order below is as of Wednesday and does not factor possible trades. And don’t forget, Super Bonus Draft Facts are at the bottom of the page. Now, seriously, let’s mock!
1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn — Commissioner Roger Goodell takes time out from mishandling the lockout to launch the league’s 76th draft by calling Newton first, the moment at which Jimmy Clausen begins answering to the name Chopped Liver. Cats have needs everywhere, but none greater than on offense, and hope Cam’s huge upside will be greater than his huge backside.
2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama — Repairing the league’s worst defense is the aim, and Nick Saban’s favorite wideload fills the bill neatly. Broncs allowed an egregious 4.7 yards per carry, and Dareus is a run-stopper first.
3 . Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M — Buffs desperate to end 11-year playoff drought and hoping to land, in Miller, the 10-plus sackman they thought they were getting but weren’t with Aaron Maybin in 2009. Team needs a left tackle more, but any would be a real reach here.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia — Here, for me, the draft gets tricky-interesting. Gals anticipate neither Terrell Owens nor Chad Ochocinco returning, so Green makes. But so might quarterback Blaine Gabbert, if Cincy is willing to greatly diminish its trade leverage with disgruntled vet Carson Palmer.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri – The applause you will hear after this pick probably is mostly from Larry Fitzgerald. Could also see Cardbirds opting for defense and cornerback Patrick Peterson.
6. Cleveland Browns: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama — Colt McCoy needs a No. 1 target and (bonus) Jones also is a great blocker. But Earthtones also will be tempted here by defenders Nick Fairly, Patrick Peterson, Da’Quan Bowers and Robert Quinn.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB, Louisiana State — Niners own more picks than anybody with 12. They likely would grab quarterback Blaine Gabbert if he’s available but will be happy to settle for the corner some call the draft’s top overall talent.
Source:
No comments:
Post a Comment