Since Texas A&M announced its intention to leave the Big XII Conference, the conventional wisdom is that the conference will not survive much longer.
(For a complete timeline of the events that led to the Big XII’s current state, click here.)
Colorado and Nebraska left last year; and rumors that the SEC will go after Missouri or that the Oklahoma schools will bolt for the Pac 12/14 never seem to go away. Both the Big Ten and Pac 12 have long coveted Texas, and the Big East has suggested that it would welcome the four schools from the former Big XII North.
But is the Big XII really as doomed as everyone seems to think it is?
Austin American-Statesman columnist Kirk Bohls thinks that one more move—perhaps Oklahoma to the Pac 12—will kill the conference. Bohls tweeted earlier this week that there’s a 70 percent chance that Texas will end up in Pac 12. Meanwhile rumors abound about possible expansion candidates.
While some observers are prepping for a conference alignment apocalypse, the Big XII’s situation isn’t nearly as dire as the conventional wisdom suggests, and it’s quite possible that the conference will survive. Here’s why:
The Big XII, like Gloria Gaynor, will survive.
Aside from the embarrassment of calling yourself the Big XII even after three of your 12 teams have left you, there is no shame in being a 9-team league. The Big XII’s predecessor, the Big 8, thrived for decades with only 8 teams (and zero top-ten media markets). The Southwest Conference—longtime home of Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor—never had more than 9 teams. Prior to 2004, the ACC only had 9 teams. The Big East and Mountain West currently have 8 teams apiece. As recently as 1991, every Division I-A football conference had between 7 and 10 teams.
Granted, all the other major conferences are expanding. The Pac 12 just added Colorado and Utah; the Big Ten added Nebraska; the Big East will be adding TCU; the SEC will be (presumably) adding Texas A&M; the Mountain West just added Boise State, with Fresno State, Nevada, and Hawaii (football only) soon to follow. And it’s only been six years since the ACC added Boston College. No conference wants to be the only major conference that’s shrinking, but bigger isn’t always better.
In 1996 the 10-team Western Athletic Conference decided to become a superconference, adding three Southwest Conference schools that didn’t get Big XII invitations (TCU, SMU, and Rice), along with UNLV, Tulsa, and San Jose State. Expansion got the WAC into new media markets, but it also diluted the product. Old-guard schools such as Utah, BYU, New Mexico, Colorado State, and Wyoming weren’t interested in being in a 16-team conference that spanned from Houston to Manoa. So they—along with UNLV, Air Force, and San Diego State (and later TCU)—broke off and formed the Mountain West Conference. By next season the Mountain West will have poached the WAC’s last remaining notable programs, leaving the lesser league begging FCS schools to upgrade their athletic departments.
The ACC’s recent expansion is another cautionary tale. Adding Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College helped the ACC get a nice new TV contract with ESPN, but it hasn’t turned the ACC into a football power conference, nor has it elevated the ACC to the level of the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac 12.
Nine is fine. Adding BYU to get back to 10 would be a good move. Adding Louisville, Pittsburgh, Memphis, and/or any former Southwest Conference school to get to 12 wouldn’t. I don’t care how badly Boone Pickens wants TCU. Expand with caution.
Who Else Might Leave?
In its current configuration, the Big XII is in good shape. It will never be worse than the fourth best football conference. And when it comes to conference alignment, football drives everything. (That said, as long as it has Kansas, the Big XII will be a relevant men’s basketball conference too.) Any speculation about the league’s demise comes from the assumption that more teams will leave.
For a school to switch conferences a school a) must want to leave its current conference and b) must secure an invitation from a new conference. Are there Big XII schools that would benefit from leaving and be welcome elsewhere?
Both the Big Ten and Pac 12 have expressed interest in Texas in the past; but that was before the Longhorn Network. Pac 12 commissioner Larry Scott has said that the Longhorn Network would be a “huge impediment” to Texas joining the league.
It makes sense that Iowa State, Baylor, and Texas Tech would begrudgingly approve of UT’s 20-year deal with ESPN. If they hadn’t, they might be headed to the Mountain West or Conference USA. USC, UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon wouldn’t be so forgiving. Considering that no one can even watch the Longhorn Network, one might think that Texas would give up on the Longhorn Network or turn it into one of the Pac 12′s regional networks. But I can think of $300 million reasons why that won’t happen.
Carter Strickland of ESPN’s HornsNation blog (yes, ESPN now has a HornsNation blog) says that Texas is better off staying put. As long as it’s in the Big XII, Texas can do whatever it wants. It wouldn’t have nearly as much sway in the Pac 12.
Independence is another option that Texas has allegedly discussed. The football Longhorns would do well as an independent, but the other sports would need a home conference. No major conference, apart from maybe the Big East, would welcome Texas without the football team. And if UT wants people to tune in to volleyball and baseball games on its new network, it would be best if those teams didn’t play in a second-tier league.
Other than Texas, Oklahoma is probably the only school that could kill the conference by leaving. I have no doubt that the Sooners would love to join the Pac 12, but I’m not convinced that the Pac 12 wants them.
Oklahoma would give the Pac 12 a top-10 football program and eyeballs in the coveted Texas media markets. It would also give them Oklahoma State. Politically, it would be near impossible to take one without the other. Adding Oklahoma would mean splitting revenue 14 ways instead of 12. Some Pac 12 presidents might also be concerned about how the Oklahoma schools fit in culturally, geographically, and academically.
The Pac 12 expressed interest in Oklahoma last year, but that was when Texas was part of the package. Much has changed since then.
Missouri could realistically leave for the SEC, but the Big XII could survive without Missouri. You’d hate to lose St. Louis, just like the league probably hated to lose Denver, but the big money is in Texas (and the real college sports fans are in Kansas City).
All of the former Big XII North schools would be welcome in the Big East, and some would probably be welcome in the ACC, but the money is better in a nine-team Big XII with Texas and Oklahoma that it would be in a 14-team ACC or a 29-team Big East.
The Big XII can live and thrive as a 9- or 10-team league. It will even be OK losing another school or two, as long as that school or two isn’t Texas and/or Oklahoma.So don’t hold your breath waiting for the Pac 12 to make an offer to the Big XII’s premier programs, and don’t assume that, if the opportunity arises, current Big XII will leave for another league.
There is no reason why the Big XII cannot remain the flagship college athletic conference in Texas and the Great Plains for years to come.
Of course, I could be wrong about all of this. So next week, when Texas and the Oklahoma schools announce that they’re leaving and that the conference will disband after this season, you can tweet me, @joshtinley, and tell me why I’m an idiot.
Josh Tinley is the author of Kneeling in the End Zone: Spiritual Lessons From the World of Sports. Follow him at twitter.com/joshtinley or send him an e-mail.
* – Bob Stoops/Mack Brown photo source: Bleacher Report
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