Thursday, December 23, 2010

Can the Oakland Athletics Make a Run for the A.L. West Title in 2011?

This year’s baseball offseason has been a tumultuous trip so far with Jayson Werth signing a 7-year/$126 million contract with the Washington Nationals that shocked numerous baseball executives, the Boston Red Sox doing their best to cement themselves as a World Series favorite next year by adding Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Bobby Jenks among others, and the Philadelphia Phillies swooping in at the 11 th hour to land the prized Cliff Lee. With all the noise that these offseason additions have made, some teams have been making some quiet moves to make a run in 2011. One of those teams is the Oakland Athletics.

Oakland is looking more and more like a legitimate contender to win the AL West, but why?

The division is on their side.

Oakland finished at .500 in 2010 and took second in the division, nine games behind the Texas Rangers. It was their first time to finish .500 or better since 2006 when they made it to the ALCS but were swept by the Detroit Tigers. The AL West has never really been a strong division, with the exception being earlier this past decade when the A’s won three division titles and made four consecutive playoff appearances. Since the expansion of the postseason and the inclusion of a wild-card team in 1994, the wild-card winner has only come from the AL West three times (2000-02). And it only takes common sense to realize that the wild-card won’t be won in the west in 2011; the AL East alone is too good.

Despite not likely being able to contend for the wild-card this upcoming season, Oakland only has to finish better than three teams rather than four. One of those teams being the Seattle Mariners who have an abysmal offense and are expected to finish last again. So that means they have to beat the Rangers and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

With news breaking earlier this week that Cliff Lee chose not to re-sign with Texas, all other American League teams could breathe a sigh of relief knowing they wouldn’t have to face Cliff Lee unless they played the Phillies in interleague play or the World Series. The loss of Lee has left Texas scrambling to fill a void in their starting rotation with limited options available. Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals and Matt Garza of the Tampa Bay Rays are the commodities on the trade market as both teams are trying to cut salary. However, reports are that a move that would send Greinke to Texas is highly unlikely because Kansas City is seeking a middle infield prospect that is close to major league ready; something Texas doesn’t have.

Another possible avenue is from the signing of one of the remaining free agent pitchers. But that option is fading by the day as most of the desirable stating pitchers have been signed already. Of the remaining talent left on the market, the most likely prospects are Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, Brad Penny, and Brandon Webb.

Another option that has often been suggested is to move AL R.O.Y. Neftali Feliz from the bullpen to the rotation. With this internal realignment, the Rangers would then have to fill the vacancy left by Feliz, who posted 40 saves in 2010. In the short term, Cliff Lee not returning to Texas will surely benefit Oakland and the other AL West teams.

Texas has made a few key acquisitions despite losing Lee to Philadelphia. The most important acquisitions made thus far are veteran C Yorvit Torrealba and touted Japanese RP Yoshinori Tateyama. Other than Lee, most of the players leaving Texas weren’t making a significant impact on the team, with the exception of Bengie Molina. Rangers GM Jon Daniels has already re-signed a lot of talent and filled in the gaps. The Rangers are young and talented and figure to be the A’s biggest competition in 2011.

Overall, the Angels have been losers this offseason. Outside of the Rangers and New York Yankees, they were the only other team that was confirmed to be one of Cliff Lee’s suitors. Torii Hunter was also trying to recruit Carl Crawford, but was eventually spurned when Crawford chose Boston. Also, long-time bullpen staple Scot Shields is expected to retire after not being able to bounce back from a knee injury in 2009. According to the Los Angeles Times, Shields cited family as a key reason he was leaning toward retirement.

The Angels have been relatively quiet outside of pursuing Lee and Crawford. They have come to terms with RP Scott Downs and SP Hisanori Takahashi. And it’s important to remember that they still have stars Jered Weaver and Torri Hunter. Also, they can expect to have Kendry Morales back from a broken leg that forced him to miss most of the 2010 season. The Angels will be good with the same lineup and rotation they featured last year, but remember, that’s the same setup that helped them to a sub-.500 finish last year.

The A’s pitchers are young and only getting better.

The A’s feature a roster with an average age of 26.9 which is middle-of-the-road when compared to the rest of Major League Baseball. However, this fact becomes more significant when the team is dissected to determine how the age is spread among the team. The younger players on the roster are from the pitching staff. Last season, Oakland had the youngest pitching staff in all of baseball with an average age of 25.7.

Not only is Oakland’s pitching staff young, it’s good. In 2010, they led the AL in ERA, runs, earned runs, and hits. They were in the top ten in numerous other categories. All things considered, Oakland’s starting rotation is one of the best and brightest rotations in the league.

26 year-old Dallas Braden emerged on the scene in a big way last year by blowing up at Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez and then throwing a perfect game not long after. Despite posting a losing record, Braden had five complete games and posted a 3.50 ERA. Braden also averaged less than one homerun per game and only two walks per game. It would be nice to see Braden develop a better swing-and-miss pitch to reduce the hits he gives up.

Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez were fantastic in 2010 recording 18 and 15 wins respectively and a complete game for each. The lefty Gonzalez showed his ability to strike out batters tallying 171 strikeouts, the most on the team. Cahill had the second most strikeouts with 118. Gonzalez was the only pitcher in the rotation to average more than four walks a game (4.1). If he can limit his walks, Gonzalez has the potential to pitch himself into the spotlight in 2011. Cahill showed great maturity in 2010 by posting his 18 wins and a 2.97 ERA. That’s something special from a 22 year-old.

Brett Anderson battled elbow problems in 2010 and spent a significant amount of time on the disabled list. Despite the injury problems, Anderson was still able to make 19 starts and post a 2.80 ERA. Anderson was coming off a year that saw him break numerous team records including single-season strikeouts and receive two votes for R.O.Y. He was able to return from the disabled list and finish 2010 strong and head into the offseason healthy.

Closer and 2009 AL R.O.Y. Andrew Bailey also experienced some injury issues in 2010, but he was still able to post a 1.47 ERA and 25 saves. Despite having minor elbow surgery in September, Bailey is expected to be 100 percent by the time pitchers and catchers report for spring training. Craig Breslow, Brad Ziegler, and Michael Wuertz were able to step into a closer-by-committee role after Bailey went down and are expected to bolster the bullpen again in 2011.

They’re making the right offseason moves to improve their offense.

So far, Oakland has been able to make some key acquisitions this offseason to improve upon a dismal offense in 2010. It’s disappointing at best to have a pitching staff with the lowest ERA in the league and only finish with a .500 record. They have signed free agent DH Hideki Matsui to replace Jack Cust, who signed a one-year contract with the Seattle Mariners earlier this offseason. Matsui posted a .274 batting average and hit 21 homeruns in 2010 and had consistent numbers in both 2009. Matsui is definitely a power upgrade from Cust, who only clubbed 13 homeruns last season. Matsui figures to be consistent, but it will be interesting to see how his power translates to pitcher-friendly Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

The Athletics also dealt Vin Mazzaro and Justin Marks to the Royals for OF David DeJesus. The addition of Dejesus created a surplus of outfielders on the depth chart, and Oakland saw this as an opportunity to trade OF Rajai Davis to the Toronto Blue Jays for two pitching prospects. They will lose some speed by trading Davis away, but will be picking up a better hitter in DeJesus, who hit .318 in 2010.

Oakland managed to bring in another offensive threat by trading two prospects to the Washington Nationals for OF Josh Willingham. Willingham is bringing a lot of power to a lineup that doesn’t usually hit for power. In his five full years at the big league level he has had an OPS above .800 and has tallied double-digit homerun totals each year.

Oakland returns a lot of young talent in 2011, especially in their pitching staff. It is key for the team to stay healthy and continue to mature as a group. Veterans like Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Ellis, and David DeJesus can help with building team chemistry. The offseason moves thus far have brought veteran power to the team. A stronger offense that provides more run support will help Oakland make strides to contend for the division.

It’s not just what Oakland is doing this offseason, but it’s also about what division rivals aren’t doing. Texas has been active in pursuing options to improve their team and make another championship run in 2011. But, they didn’t land Cliff Lee and there aren’t a lot of options out there to fill that last spot in the rotation. The only big moves they’ve made so far are signing Yorvit Torrealba and Yosinori Tateyama and re-signing Jeff Francouer. The Angels have done little to nothing this offseason and have lost Hideki Matsui and Scot Shields.

What else does Oakland need to do to finish putting together the pieces? They need to figure out their fifth spot in the rotation. As of now, newly acquired Brandon McCarthy is listed fifth on the depth chart, but he’s coming off an injury and hasn’t spent a full year as a big league starting pitcher. Another option is Justin Duchscherer, but he is also coming off an injury. Oakland is still pursuing all available options outside the organization to land a fourth or fifth starter.

Oakland has also pursued 3B Adrian Beltre this offseason, but rumors indicate that Beltre is opposed to playing in Oakland. Beltre has denied these rumors, but it wouldn’t be the first time a player was turned off by the prospect of playing in Oakland. GM Billy Beane said, “The facility is a hurdle. That’s a fact,” in regards to negative effect the A’s aging Coliseum has on attracting top free agents to Oakland.

Oakland has made the right moves this offseason to contend for a division title, but they will be met with tough competition. The Rangers are still the favorite to win the west and the Angels are getting Kendry Morales back from injury, but Oakland is definitely going to contend for the AL West title.

Source: http://www.studyofsports.com

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