What we at The Hotline learned this week:
-- Look beyond President Obama 's national approval rating; there are warning signs in some of the key battleground states Obama must win if he wants a second term. In Ohio, Quinnipiac measures Obama's approval rating at just 46 percent, with 50 percent disapproving. In Iowa, according to a Mason-Dixon poll released this week, he trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney , 42 to 39 percent. Romney also leads Obama in Michigan, 46 to 42 percent, in an EPIC-MRA poll. Earlier this month, a Granite State poll in New Hampshire pegged his job approval at 46 percent, with 49 percent disapproving. Obama won all of these states in the 2008 presidential election with at least 52 percent of the vote.
-- If she didn't know it before, Rep. Michele Bachmann knows it now: She's not in Minnesota's 6th district anymore. Bachmann assembled a solid campaign team, but she's got a powerful cadre of Republican establishment players arrayed against her. Bachmann's former staffers are behind leaks about her health (And if Bachmann has anything in spades, it's former staff), and Republicans like Fred Malek are increasingly open with their opposition to Bachmann's candidacy.
-- This week gave a preview of issues other presidential candidates may use to go after Texas Gov. Rick Perry if he jumps into the race. Texas news outlets are questioning his story on job creation, Texas' spending habits, and Perry's history with the Democratic party. Perry looks great, but the shine comes off anyone once they officially become a candidate.
-- One thing former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos reminded us: If you're a member of the Florida state legislature, your time in the Tallahassee swamp is probably going to follow you for the rest of your political career. See, for example, ex-Rep. Tom Feeney , R-Fla., or Rep. David Rivera , R-Fla. Even Sen. Marco Rubio , R-Fla., had to answer questions about his time as Speaker. With Haridopolos gone, another legislator, former Florida House Speaker Allan Bense , is taking a second look at the race. We'll see how eager Floridians are to drain the swamp - either in Tallahassee or Washington.
-- Then again, we're struck by the number of Republican strategist types who don't believe the eventual Republican nominee in Florida is in the race yet. Congratulations, Gov. Rick Scott , you changed the model.
-- Does it ever seem like everyone's overanalyzing the same few Senate races to death each week? Fear not, it's certainly possible that number could double by the end of the year. Republicans could still find competitive challengers for the now uncontested Connecticut, Hawaii, Washington, and West Virginia Senate races, while Democrats still have hopes of attracting decent recruits in Arizona, Maine, Massachusetts, and Utah. Wisconsin will surely be a toss-up too, and if a couple long-shot candidacies start to pop as well (in states like Texas or New Jersey), there could be as many as 20 interesting Senate races by the New Year.
-- One Senate race popping already: Michigan. Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra is expected to give Sen. Debbie Stabenow a run for her money. He hasn't been a great fundraiser in the past, but he expanded his fundraising network during the 2010 gubernatorial race, and can expect to see national money come in if the race looks as close as it's anticipated to be. If any state hates their incumbents, it's Michigan, a place that's suffered the economic downturn for a generation before it hit the rest of the nation.
-- With Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst finally making it official , the most compelling story line in the Lone Star State moving forward could be a primary within a primary: the battle between former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert and former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz to see who will emerge as the anti-Dewhurst. Don't forget, the primary goes to a runoff if no one gets 50 percent. Both candidates have proven their fundraising mettle and placed an emphasis on conservative fiscal policies, but it could come down to whose vulnerability proves more problematic: Leppert's perceived moderation or the checkered success rate of Hispanic candidates in GOP primaries in Texas.
-- Sen. Dick Lugar , R-Ind., has a significant early fundraising advantage over Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock , and he isn't wasting any time showing it off. Lugar went up with his first television ad this week, and reports indicate more spots will follow soon. Considering Mourdock's recent struggles , Lugar may be looking for an early-round knock-out.
-- Initial fundraising reports aren't always what they seem. In Hawaii, former Rep. Ed Case had initially said he raised about $240,000 for his campaign -- but that turned out to be the amount he has raised all year. For the quarter, it was a more paltry $147,000. In Massachusetts, Newton Mayor Setti Warren announced his $124,000 haul last week, but he only has $54,000 in the bank and, what's worse, $77,000 in debt.
-- More proof Americans hate Washington: A new ABC/Washington Post poll shows that just 30 percent of voters would reelect their member of Congress. In the last election, Republicans rode that anti-incumbent wave -- easier when they didn't hold the Senate, House or presidency -- to a 63-seat gain. But they're in charge now. The longer the debt ceiling debate drags on, the more uncertainty percolates into the economy, and Republicans are taking the brunt of the blame. NRCC campaign chiefs said this week that disgust with Congress is nothing new, and that voters will put the blame on Obama for the economy -- but there's no real way to know that until the crisis passes.
-- For all the public fascination of late with Rupert Murdoch , his involvement in the hacking scandal appears unlikely to cost him his job or to dismantle his U.S. empire. It helps that American newsrooms are so drastically different from those of their British counterparts. But we haven't heard the end of it: Although none of Murdoch's U.S. media holdings have been accused of phone-hacking, the Justice Department is reportedly preparing subpoenas.
-- Here's a bet to take to the bank: The eventual Republican presidential nominee won't be taking matching funds in the general election. The FEC's decision this week to make John Edwards pay back misappropriated matching funds in the primary, and the revelations that the FEC routinely gives campaigns too much in matching funds, is more fodder for free speech advocates who want to dismantle the matching system.
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