No sense overreacting to the pronouncement by one high school kid, even if that kid weighs 305 pounds and could bench-press me. On the list of inexact sciences, football recruiting ranks up there with meteorology and Florida jury deliberations.
But I do think one thing is becoming clear: It's a chance to feast on the beast.
The battered beast is Ohio State, and the feast includes a huge crop of talented Ohio players. And as expected, Michigan and Michigan State are embracing one of those prime twists of timing.
In case you missed it, Michigan landed a verbal commitment from another giant prize, Cleveland-area offensive lineman Kyle Kalis. Brady Hoke hasn't even strapped on the sunglasses for a real game yet and he's already considered the right tonic for the Wolverines at the right time. An impressive 2012 recruiting class grew with the addition of Kalis, the presumed No. 1 player in Ohio.
Of course, this is just one verbal agreement from one kid. But it's especially notable because he originally committed to the Buckeyes, until Jim Tressel was busted for serial lying and replaced by Luke Fickell. Kalis pledged allegiance to Michigan with this marquee quote uttered to ESPN.com: "I believe the Michigan-Ohio border is now open."
As long as it stays open, Hoke and Michigan State's Mark Dantonio plan to tromp across it. Michigan has 20 verbal commitments, nine from Ohio, and analysts predict Hoke is headed for a top-five class that includes a batch of hefty linemen. Michigan State has 10 verbals, five from Ohio, and Dantonio is expanding on previous success there. The Spartans also have a contending team that could win in Columbus this season.
This is a critical juncture for several rivalries, from fabled Michigan-Ohio State to feisty Michigan-Michigan State to flickering Michigan State-Ohio State. Heck, depending on the severity of NCAA sanctions, maybe even Akron-Ohio State.
Please understand, Ohio State football isn't going away forever. Not to make you nervous, but former Florida coach Urban Meyer is sitting out there, resting, watching, surely inclined to pursue committed (but unsigned) recruits if he takes over after this season. The Buckeyes will be back, but they're going down for a while, which means Hoke and Dantonio have a gift they should open immediately.
Since last season ended, just look at the quirks of fate. The Sweater Vest was forced to resign, or retire, or dive under a moving bus, shortly after Hoke was hired to restore Michigan's identity and rebuild Midwest recruiting. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor essentially was forced to leave. Michigan State even saw its one-third share of the Big Ten title raised to half-and-half with Wisconsin after Ohio State vacated its 12 wins from the 2010 season.
Now, Ohio State is headed to the NCAA hoosegow at precisely the time Michigan and Michigan State are poised to pounce, with an Ohio talent pool considered the best in a decade. I know what you're saying: "Wojo, stop being a blowhard. Recruiting is one thing, actually beating the Buckeyes is another."
Fair point.
Since 2001, Michigan and Michigan State are a combined 1-15 against Ohio State.
Tressel was a terrific coach. But he also had a terrifically fertile recruiting ground. The state of Michigan churns out good football players, but not nearly as many as Ohio, which ranks just behind California, Texas and Florida.
Michigan and Michigan State long were able to pluck a few plums. The Wolverines' last two Heisman winners, Desmond Howard and Charles Woodson, overcame their Buckeyes upbringings. The Spartans were buoyed by such Buckeyes-bred standouts as Greg Jones and Javon Ringer.
In the past decade, Tressel put a fence around Ohio's best that was as foreboding as one of those barbed-wire arm tattoos. The Buckeyes still will get good talent, but don't kid yourself — they're in a pickle with young Fickell.
They have nine verbal commitments now, all from Ohio, and not a single national recruit. The Spartans' top commitment is Ohio defensive end Se'von Pittman, and they added Lima, Ohio, quarterback Tyler O'Connor. Michigan has touted Ohio defensive players Tom Strobel, Joe Bolden and Jarrod Wilson.
But it was the Kalis announcement that sent Buckeyes fans into a raging tizzy. They're probably overreacting to one recruit, and so am I, but consider this: If Rich Rodriguez were still Michigan's coach, would Kalis have switched to the Wolverines? That pipeline was headed the other way during Michigan's collapse, highlighted (lowlighted?) by Justin Boren's bolt to Columbus.
Dantonio seized the moment, benefited from Rodriguez's failings and built a solid program that has beaten Michigan three straight years. Hoke must benefit from Tressel's demise the same way, and very early, he has.
Big-time recruits don't guarantee big-time victories, duh. But you don't win consistently without big-time recruits. The Buckeyes' desperation is mounting, evidenced by their hiring of inexperienced former Ohio State great Mike Vrabel as an assistant.
Athletic director Gene Smith has been telling people the Buckeyes punished themselves plenty, which is funny. They barely slapped themselves on their tattooed wrists, and the NCAA likely will have more to say at the Aug. 12 hearing, although I doubt it'll pull out the huge hammer.
The obstinate Buckeyes might lose a few scholarships and miss a bowl game, but their biggest loss already occurred. Tressel is gone and the recruiting leak has sprung, and before it can be plugged, the Wolverines and Spartans must splurge.
Michigan and Michigan State commitments from Ohio for the 2012 recruiting classes, according to Scout.com:
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