RICHMOND — Lynchburg’s honeymoon with Amtrak continued in November, producing enough riders on the new train that started in October to generate a profit in its second month of operation.
A daily bus service that would bring riders from Roanoke to the Lynchburg train station for connections to Washington and the Northeast is feasible, according to state Sen. John Edwards , D-Roanoke.
The State Department of Rail and Public Transportation issued a study last week that indicates the bus would have 3,600 passengers per year who would pay $3 per ride.
Edwards , who sponsored a state budget amendment that led to the DRPT study, said, “I think it’s doable,” and “hopefully by next summer we can get a bus connector up and running.”
State and local governments would be expected to pay about $152,000 per year to operate the service.
The DRPT report said, “The majority of the operating costs could be funded through federal and state transit grant programs … and passenger revenues,” with 35 percent of the money provided by local governments in the Roanoke-to-Lynchburg corridor.
Roanoke City Council was expected to discuss the DRPT report Monday night, Edwards said.
Edwards said he thought the bus might have more riders than the 3,600 that were forecast in the DRPT study.
“I think it was underestimated,” Edwards said.
An Amtrak ridership estimate for a Lynchburg-to- Washington train that began operating in 2009 fell far short of its actual ridership, Edwards said, and he said he thought the same level of interest would accompany a Roanoke-to-Lynchburg bus connection.
The DRPT study said its forecast was based on a model used by Amtrak for estimating ridership on long-distance trains.
The study’s methodology was questionable, according to Dan Peacock , a member of the Virginia Association of Railway Patrons . Peacock said he thought the bus ridership estimate was underestimated.
The DRPT report didn’t say how many people who already ride the train come from the Roanoke and Bedford areas, Peacock said.
Also, the study did not say how it computed a ridership of five people making 10 trips per day.
DRPT also calculated the cost and ridership for a route that would extend the bus service to Blacksburg for potential Virginia Tech passengers.
“A further extension of the connector service to Blacksburg would raise operating costs substantially (over 40 percent) due largely to the increase in distance, while generating only modest additional ridership of approximately 800 passengers per year,” the report said.
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