I’m buying in.
Although I don’t yet trust Will Muschamp’s ability to be a competent head coach, there are too many other positive factors.
Florida will be back sooner rather than later.
There are numerous reasons to fault Muschamp.
The Gators remain dead last in the country in penalties and there are only seven teams out of 120 that have a worse turnover margin than UF’s minus-9.
Those factors greatly contribute to the team’s 5-4 record.
I think everybody not associated with the Gators would concur that this squad is headed for either a six-or-seven win season.
We know where the Gators are in the present.
This is about looking at Florida’s future.
There are reasons to think UF can be much improved in 2012.
The Gators have 11 scholarship seniors on this team. Only four (running backs Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey, along with defensive tackle Jaye Howard and quarterback John Brantley) are truly impactful losses.
The truth is the Gators have more phantoms on their roster than seniors. What’s a phantom? A phantom is a scholarship not being filled. The Gators are playing with 73 scholarship players, a dozen under the limit. Four of those are walk-ons who were awarded scholarships in preseason practice. So, UF actually has 68 players on the team it heavily pursued in recruiting.
That’s the equivalent of self-imposed sanctions. Massive sanctions.
So, what does Florida really lose off this team heading into next year? While recruiting isn’t an exact science, more and more true freshmen are playing at a high level every year in college football. UF has 17 commitments now, a group ranked fourth in the country by Rivals.com. UF has the room to add at least six more players to that haul and will make a push to land the nation’s top class.
Incoming freshmen classes are often overvalued. However, there’s no way Muschamp’s first full class won’t be more impactful than the 11 seniors and 12 empty scholarships it replaces.
The Gators will be more talented next season.
This team’s biggest weakness is receiver. Florida’s leading receivers, Deonte Thompson and Frankie Hammond, each have 14 catches. That’s pathetic. UF’s top three in receptions are not receivers.
The receiving corps’ yardage leader is Andre Debose. He’s averaging slightly over 30 yards a game with 272.
To put these numbers in their putrid perspective, let’s look at Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon. He’s caught 87 passes for 1,039 yards and 12 touchdowns this season for the Cowboys.
Brantley’s experience is a plus UF will miss, but his play won’t be. UF has thrown for seven touchdowns this season, the fewest in the Southeastern Conference.
Houston quarterback Case Keenum threw nine in a game this season against Rice.
The good news here for UF is twofold. The Gators already have two promising, but clearly not ready, true freshman quarterbacks already on campus in Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel. They’ll be much more prepared heading into next fall.
Their supporting cast should also improve. UF is thought to lead for two uncommitted five-star receivers in Maryland’s Stefon Diggs and Tampa’s Nelson Agholor. Rivals ranks Diggs as the country’s eighth-best overall player and has Agholor 11th.
Last year, Rivals had future Clemson freshman phenom receiver Sammy Watkins as the nation’s 15th-best overall prospect. Receivers, like running backs, can become reliable weapons as true freshmen. Adding at least one of the two is a must for Muschamp and shouldn’t be too hard a sell. No elite program has a more inviting depth chart at receiver than Florida.
Immediate help at running back, offensive line and tight end has already been addressed in the class of UF’s current commitments.
Defensively, the Gators aren’t bad now, ranking 14th in the country in total defense. With no chance of any players leaving early for the NFL Draft, the Gators could welcome back 10 starters on that side of the ball. The signing class would add some much-needed depth.
Muschamp will also have a greater stamp on the program with nearly a third of the roster being guys he actively evaluated and recruited for a full year. Returning roughly 60 players that are a year more developed physically and mentally in the coaching philosophy will be invaluable as well.
The greatest variable remains Muschamp, because he has yet to show any real coaching acumen. Although it is easy to see the obstacles he’s had to overcome in his first year at Florida.
Obstacles that soon will disappear, along with Florida’s losing ways.
With inspiration from the satirical website, theonion.com, here are the top sports stories that just missed the paper this week. These are Hays’ headlines.
- Jaguars bye week comes at terrible time for insomniac
- NFL.com begins selling Andrew Luck Colts jerseys
- 1972 Dolphins players take field, stomp Chiefs to keep Miami from going 0-16
- Arkansas’ top-10 matchup with South Carolina draws 0.002 rating
- Top-notch mystic certifies “Madden Curse” as real
- Steve Williams taking his divorce with Tiger worse than Elin did
- Crafty Nick Saban saving all his good plays for rematch
- Report: Commodores played Aaron Rodgers in second half against UF
- Jaguars front office hoping “Occupy EverBank Field” movement gains traction (sent by Kevin Grant, Middleburg)
Have a headline? Email your suggestions to hays.carlyon@jacksonville.com or write it in the comments section below. The best submissions will appear in Hays’ TU-2 in Wednesday’s Times-Union.
Holy cow, your humble seer is now officially flirting with a solid season. A 5-2 mark last week improved the season record to 32-23. Vegas fears me. Hopefully, I can handle going from being the hunter to the hunted. When you’re hot, you’ve got to let it ride.
Let’s be bold and turn this thing up to 11.
- Miami (plus 9.5 points) at Florida State: The Seminoles haven’t seen a team as athletic as Miami in six weeks. I’ll take the Hurricanes and the points.
- Alabama (minus 17) at Mississippi State: The Crimson Tide should’ve won Saturday night. They’ll leave no doubt this week. Give me ‘Bama and I’ll spot the points.
- TCU (plus 14) at Boise State: Broncos see the writing on the wall. They aren’t getting a shot at the title. TCU covers this spread against deflated Boise State.
- Nebraska (minus 2 points) at Penn State: No analysis here. I mainly just want a reason to root against Penn State. Give me the Cornhuskers and I’ll hand over the two.
- Tennessee (plus 15) at Arkansas: I’ve gone with Arkansas three straight weeks. Make it four. The Razorbacks are too explosive for the Vols to keep up on the road. I’ll take Arkansas and dish out the 15.
- Michigan State (minus 3) at Iowa: I love getting the Hawkeyes at home and points. Enjoy that pink locker room, Sparty.
- West Virginia (plus 3.5) at Cincinnati: The Bearcats are 7-1, but I’ll take an explosive, yet struggling, West Virginia squad and the points.
- Auburn (plus 12.5) at Georgia: I’m impressed with Georgia, but not enough to spot this many points. Give me Auburn to cover.
- Oregon (plus 3) at Stanford: I think Oregon wins the game, but I suppose I’ll pocket the three if Vegas insists on handing it out.
- Texas A&M (minus 4) at Kansas State: Both teams can score. I’ll take the high-scoring team playing at home that’s getting four points.
- Florida (plus 3) at South Carolina: As banged up as the Gamecocks are, I don’t think UF is ready to go win a game in front of a hostile crowd. I’ll take South Carolina and hand over the points.
This is likely the final briefing, at least for a while.
We’re nine weeks into the season.
You play matchups. That’s fantasy football. At this point, there really doesn’t need to be any detailed analysis. Players and teams are what they are. Terrible defenses won’t become stout and vice versa. After several weeks of waiver-wire plucking, your roster should be well set. Most leagues have already hit the trading deadline.
Maybe the briefing will pick up near playoff time around Week 14.
This is how awesome the NFL Red Zone channel is. Here’s how the late afternoon games played out with all five coming down to the wire.
7 p.m. – Denver’s Eddie Royal returns punt 85 yards to give Broncos a 31-24 lead on Oakland with 6:12 to play in the game.
7:02 – San Diego recovers on-side kick, trailing Green Bay 45-31.
7:04 – Eli Manning throws a beautiful 10-yard touchdown pass to Mario Manningham in the back corner of the end zone to put the Giants up on New England 17-13 with 3:03 to play.
7:05 – San Diego cuts Packers lead to seven on Philip Rivers 29-yard TD pass to Vincent Jackson with 6:25 left.
7:07 – St. Louis stuffed on fourth-and-1 tied with Arizona at 13 with 1:41 to play.
7:10 – Cincinnati strips Tennessee tight end Jared Cook and recovers the fumble, leading the Titans 21-17 with 3:52 remaining.
7:16 – Tom Brady finds Rob Gronkowski for a 14-yard TD pass to put Patriots up on Giants 20-17 with 1:36 left.
7:16 – Tim Tebow breaks a 28-yard run to the Oakland 49 with Denver nursing a 31-24 lead with 3:48 to play.
7:18 – Willis McGahee puts game away with 24-yard TD run to give Denver a 38-24 lead with 2:00 left.
7:24 – Arizona blocks St. Louis field goal on final play of regulation.
7:26 – Eli Manning finds Jake Ballard for a 1-yard TD pass with 15 seconds left to lift the Giants over New England 24-20.
7:32 – Green Bay picks off Rivers with 14 seconds left to wrap up 45-38 victory and stay undefeated.
7:32 – Patrick Peterson returns punt 99 yards for TD to give Cardinals 19-13 overtime win over the Rams.
It was 32 minutes of some of the best TV I’ve ever seen. This channel is a must-have.
After all this, they wrap up their day by showing every touchdown, all 57 of them.
What a moment for Joe Flacco in leading the visiting Ravens 92 yards in the final minutes to edge Pittsburgh 23-20 and pull off the season sweep. Flacco found Torrey Smith for a 26-yard touchdown pass with eight seconds left in the game.
The Pittsburgh defense got exposed in this contest. In addition to giving up the game-winning drive, the Steelers allowed Baltimore to convert 14-of-21 third-down situations.
Can you feel it? The Tim Tebow playoff push. Seriously, how many football experts in this country will puke their guts out if Tebow somehow leads Denver to the AFC West title? It isn’t as far-fetched as you might think. The Broncos are 3-5. Yes, they are in last, but Kansas City, Oakland and San Diego are all 4-4. So, Denver is a game out with the second half of the season to play. I’m not saying it will happen, just that the Broncos are, for now, absolutely in the race.
The Broncos are also 2-1 with Tebow as their starter this season after he helped lead another second-half comeback. The Broncos trailed Oakland by 10 points twice in the third quarter and won. That’s the second time in three starts that Tebow has helped guide Denver back from a double-digit deficit on the road to win a game.
Tebow did exactly what he had to do Sunday, which was show improvement. He didn’t turn the ball over and was only sacked twice. Tebow also made plays, throwing two touchdown passes and running for 118 yards on just 12 carries. Yeah, he completed less than 50 percent of his passes, going 10 for 21. That’s his game. You have to accept it, especially if he runs for nearly 10 yards a carry and protects the football.
If anything, Tebow bought himself at least another few starts with his performance. A second straight disaster might have ended the experiment in Denver.
As is stands now, the Broncos are 3-3 overall in Tebow’s six career starts, dating back to last season and 4-15 in their other games when Tebow doesn’t start.
The guy is a winner. Cue the puking.
Patrick Peterson is the new Devin Hester. The rookie out of LSU already has returned three punts for scores this season in eight games. On his brilliant return against St. Louis, Peterson broke four tackles.
Atlanta first-year receiver Julio Jones is a talented player. Still, there’s no reason for a rookie to light up any NFL secondary as easily as the former Alabama star did against the Colts. Jones caught a 50-yard touchdown bomb between three Colts defenders, none of whom seemed the least bit interested in the ball. Jones then caught a simple slant 10 yards downfield and ran for 70 more for another score.
Indianapolis went on to lose to Atlanta 31-7. The defense did at least score on an interception return. There were no bright spots for Indy’s offense, which gained 186 total yards.
The Andrew Luck sweepstakes is over, especially with Miami winning on Sunday. The Colts (0-9) are the league’s only winless team and have been outscored 120-24 combined in their last three games. This team isn’t getting off the mat. Also, keep in mind, that every other poor team has had its bye. Indy’s comes in Week 11. Therefore, there aren’t any teams in the NFL with eight losses yet and the Colts have nine.
I still don’t understand why in the world the franchise would think about playing Peyton Manning this season, but that’s the only thing keeping Indy from 0-16.
I’d start looking into Indianapolis property if I was Luck.
Also, I don’t buy the argument that if the Colts draft Luck No. 1 overall, they can’t improve their team immediately and make a Super Bowl push with Peyton healthy. Indy would take Luck first, giving it a huge upgrade at backup quarterback in case Peyton missed a game or two in 2012. Then, the Colts would still have the remainder of their draft to address more immediate concerns. Plus, there’s free agency. Too many people act as if the Colts lose their entire draft if they take Luck with the first pick. It’s just one pick. There are six more rounds later.
Need more evidence the NFL is a passing league? There were 52 offensive touchdowns scored in the Sunday slate of afternoon games. Thirty nine were passing scores. That’s 75 percent.
So, am I backing off my prediction last week that the LSU-Alabama game would only be the first of two meetings this season? No.
Again, I don’t agree with it, especially since Alabama lost at home, but to me it’s a lot closer to a lock than most seem to believe.
First off, the BCS stunningly only dropped the Crimson Tide to third. That places Alabama above undefeated Stanford and Boise State. I still say Boise State has no chance. This latest BCS ranking simply confirms that. However, I’m a bit stunned that Stanford is getting the shaft, at least for now.
I think Oklahoma State and Stanford will end up losing. I think LSU and Alabama will win out. The Crimson Tide will then meet LSU again for the national championship, edging out a one-loss Oklahoma. As an aside, the Sooners don’t deserve it either after losing at home to a Texas Tech team that is now 5-4.
“Alabama-LSU: Part Two” is a horror of a title game in my opinion. Why should the Tide get to face LSU on a neutral site when they couldn’t defeat them in Tuscaloosa? It makes no sense, but little does in college football.
I’d rather see LSU hand Boise State the 48-13 beating it would, than to watch Saturday night’s matchup again. It was entertaining, but it’s just been played out.
I mean, why would I want to watch Nick Saban get completely outcoached by Les Miles again?
Oh, in case you missed it, Missouri, has [yawn] agreed to [yawn] join the [yawn] SEC. You might want to enjoy whatever bowl trip to get to take this season Tigers fans, should your 4-5 squad earn a berth to one.
I am interested to see what the SEC does with its football scheduling. Missouri will be placed in the East, with Texas A&M in the West.
Will the SEC still have each school always play the same school from the other division (Georgia-Auburn, Tennessee-Alabama, Florida-LSU) and rotate one other game or will the two non-divisional games rotate?
My choice would be for the teams to play every divisional foe (six games), one non-divisional game against a traditional rival and one rotating non-divisional game.
It pushes exciting games like Florida-Alabama, Georgia-LSU and Tennessee-Auburn farther apart in years, but you could see those matchups in the SEC title game.
I can’t see the SEC going to nine conference games. There’s no money in it.
There has been speculation that the Gators will be pulled away from LSU and partnered up with Texas A&M on an annual basis. LSU would become Missouri’s annual West opponent. That makes sense in terms of fully integrating both former Big XII members into the SEC. You’d think the SEC might put the Missouri-Texas A&M game on the back end of any rotation. That way when the two schools do meet years from now in the regular season, time will have faded the memory of them as Big XII schools.
I celebrated like Jordan after he buried the Cavs with that last-second jumper in the playoffs after my daughter, Avery, went potty in the toilet this weekend.
You will follow me on Twitter @hayscarlyon tonight and every night -- and without that pledge pin! Do you understand!
« The Monday Hays: Help needed for Gabbert, undisciplined Gators and the NFL glut 31 of 31 Flag as offensive
Source:
No comments:
Post a Comment