Having relinquished the WBO super-featherweight title, Scotland's Ricky Burns begins his assault on the lightweight division when he faces Michael Katsidis on Saturday.
Katsidis has lost two of his last three but only to the very best of the lightweights – Juan Manuel Marquez and Robert Guerrero. At 31 he may be on the slide but with 23 KOs from 28 wins he remains a puncher to be feared.
Burns, 28, had been linked with a super-featherweight title unification bout with Mzonke Fana or a US debut against rising star Adrien Broner so his move to the lightweight division came as something of a surprise.
The choice of Katsidis as an opponent is perhaps even more of a surprise given that Burns’ promoter Frank Warren saw the all-action Australian destroy his fighter Kevin Mitchell inside three rounds only last May.
Fans can hope to see the winner of this one face the revitalised Mitchell – the prospect of a Mitchell-Katsidis rematch is particularly enticing.
Last year Warren gambled that Mitchell could use his neat boxing skills to keep Katsidis at bay but Katsidis walked through Mitchell’s punches before totally overwhelming him.
Katsidis is now a year older but perhaps Warren is not a year wiser – the bookmakers have Burns established as a clear underdog due to heavy trading on Katsidis. Warren’s advertising poster for the fight proclaims ‘Gladiators’ but the match-up brings to mind another Roman spectacle: the Christians to the Lions.
British boxing’s number-one cheerleader Steve Bunce is rather more optimistic, believing that “Ricky can win because he is clever, a thinker and that type of fighter can cause Katsidis problems.”
After the Mitchell fight Katsidis put in a career-best performance against the pound-for-pound rated Marquez. He had the Mexican down in the third round but Marquez’ technical prowess would prove too much and it was stopped in the ninth.
It could be argued that Katsidis had lost a step in his decision loss to Guerrero but Guerrero, a tall, rangy southpaw whose star is in the ascendancy, is a formidable opponent – and only time will tell just how formidable.
Marquez and Guerrero showed that Katsidis is not truly world-class but they are both wonderful boxers who possess the power to make their opponents think. Burns is not on their level skills-wise, and he has just 9 KOs from 32 wins, having fought mainly at a lower weight.
The key factor in this fight may how Burns shapes up as a lightweight. He has said he felt like a “zombie” before and will now be able to focus more on his boxing and less on the scales, adding, “I do believe I will be stronger at lightweight.” He needs to be to stand any chance.
A win over Katsidis would establish Burns as a legitimate contender at lightweight but there is little evidence that he is capable of achieving it.
Having failed in challenges for the British super-featherweight title against both Alex Arthur and Carl Johanneson, Burns eventually fought his way to a WBO title shot which he scarcely deserved.
Burns deserves credit for the gutsy underdog performance against Roman Martinez that won him the WBO belt but not for his three embarrassingly soft defences, the last of which was immediately branded a “farce”.
Burns has a significant reach advantage and a good jab with which he hopes to keep Katsidis at bay but Katsidis will bull forward, quite happily taking two shots to land one.
Unless Burns was seriously weight-drained at super-featherweight, or Katsidis is seriously past it, then expect the Australian to chalk-up a hat-trick of wins on British soil in a fight that will be exciting for as long as it lasts.
In the chief support bout George Groves defends his British super-middleweight title against the former champion Paul Smith.
A year ago this would have been seen as a 50-50 fight but given how James DeGale picked Smith apart inside nine rounds, and that Groves now holds a disputed win over DeGale – Groves is today the heavy favourite.
As ever styles make fights, and Smith may be able to cause Groves more problems than the form book suggests.
Groves needs to put on a better show than he did against DeGale, a fight in which his negative performance was excused because so many wanted to see DeGale get his comeuppance.
However, if Groves does come forward then the fight might just get interesting – only last year Groves showed frailties when he traded with Kenny Anderson before benefiting from a slightly premature stoppage.
A commanding stoppage win against Smith would confirm Groves as the heir to Carl Froch but if he finds it necessary to once again stay on the back-foot and look to nick it then the signs will be that he still has a long way to go.
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