By Ben Bieker
B.J. “The Prodigy” Penn (16-7-1, #7 Welterweight) VS. Jon Fitch (23-3-0-1, #2 Welterweight)
B.J. Penn has had an up and down career at Welterweight. People don’t know, but his record is only 3-3. Two of those wins are over Matt Hughes and the other is over Duane Ludwig, who is a Lightweight himself. He has been dominated by GSP twice, and got submitted by Matt Hughes. People like to make Jon Fitch out to be GSP light. If that is true then he wins this fight. No one has really been able to defend Jon’s takedowns besides GSP. Beyond that he has gotten good wrestlers in mike Pierce, Diego Sanchez, Paulo YThiago, and Thiago Alves down. People at one time thought B.J. had really good takedown defense, but Frankie Edgar proved he can be brought down. This fight is an easy pick in Jon as he his 21-1 in his last 23 fights, while B.J. is only 3-3 since 2009.
The Bottom Line: Jon Fitch by unanimous decision win after three rounds of grinding.
Michael “The Count” Bisping (20-3-0) vs. Jorge “El Conquistador” Rivera (19-7-0)
Focus is the one thing that will determine this fight. Both of these fighters have seemed to lose focus in the weeks leading up to this fight. Bisping has professed who he would love to fight from Dan Henderson to Wanderlei Silva. If he focuses too much on opponents that may or may not be in his future he will lose this fight. Jorge has been a little more focused on this fight, but he seems to have taken a page out of Chael Sonnen’s book by the way he has been acting. His videos on youtube, while entertaining, show a lack of focus on the task at hand. To compete at the highest level your days should be dedicated to training and that is it.
Jorge has always been a tough veteran fighter taking on all fighters of all sizes. He has a win over Tim Sylvia in his amateur career, so that says a lot about his talent. The problem is he has never gotten to the top of the MMA world because he has run into road blocks. He has the talent as he has given Rich Franklin fits in their fight, but he will need to be impressive here to step closer to the title. For him to win he will need to use his aggression and power to stop Bisping. He will not be able to win a war attrition as that is Bisping’s type of fight.
Bisping’s biggest weakness is his ego. He probably would have gotten a title shot a long time ago if he was not so headstrong. Both of his defeats at 185 have come from his over confidence. In the days leading up to the Henderson fight he stated he envisioned knocking out Henderson multiple times, and leading up to the Wanderlei fight he called him washed up and said he would retire him. Obviously none of those scenarios were shown to be true. For him to win he will need to use his style to take Jorge out of his element. He will need to stay lose and back up as he catches Jorge with pitter patter punches. Form there the occasional takedown will keep Jorge guessing on what Bisping will do next
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The Bottom Line: Arrogance gets the best of Bisping here as the slugging of Jorge catches him for a come from behind win in the third.
There is a problem many fighters run into when they fight certain opponents. They fight outside their comfort zone. It is hard to say whether it is the trash talk of their opponents or the bravado of the competitor themselves but eventually they make a mistake. This is what has been building until this fight. George has been questioning Dennis’ ground game, and in return Dennis has said he will submit George. Given that will be hard since it was something that Shinya Aoki himself couldn’t do, but Dennis is adamant about it. Most times when people decide to show how “underrated” part of their game is it ends up being that part of their game is as good as everyone thought it was.
Obviously, the best chance for Dennis will be to keep the fight standing. There he has an advantage over George because his standup is lethal, while George’s is only used to get the fight to the ground. Given he has only stopped five opponents with his striking, but it is dynamic as two of those stoppages have come by spinning back kick. If he could pick apart George, while defending the shot, then he would have a great chance of winning.
George’s best chance to win the fight is to get it to the ground. He has 8 wins by submission and the rest of his decision wins have come because of his control on the ground. The two times he has lost where from being outclassed and frustrated on the ground, and from fighting out of his proper weight class. Since, supposedly, Dennis is willing to take the fight to the ground George should hop all over that chance and take a win in this fight.
The Bottom Line: Dennis has a chance to win this fight, but it is not on the ground. He would be stupid to let the fight get to the ground because he will most likely not get up if it does. George by second round submission.
It really sucks that Carlos got hurt coming into this fight. More than anything it could have provided a new threat to GSP, as both fighters had not fought him yet. Carlos was the Former WEC Welterweight champion, and coming into the UFC he had three rough fights with Martin Kampmann, Jake Ellenberger, and Rory MacDonald. Then with his blitzkrieg knockout over Dan Hardy he proved he was still a threat. If Lytle was able to beat a fighter like that it would have done a lot more for him than a win over brain will do. That is not to say that Brain is not a dangerous fighter, it is that he is unknown.
Brain is a fighter similar to Chris Lytle. He can win the fight anywhere, has a massive record, and has never gotten the recognition that other fighters have. Most of his losses have come to name competition, but he seems to never have gotten that one win to propel him further than a journeyman in his career. If he is able to beat Lytle then that will do it for him.
Lytle himself has made some mistakes in his career. The most important of them that he will tell you is his fight with Matt Serra. Before that fight Chris was not the relentless attacker that we see today. His lack of action in that fight, and the loss, prompted him to become ultra-aggressive. Since that fight he has went 8-4 with losses coming to Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck, Thiago Silva, and at the time a relevant Marcus Davis. Carlos was his chance to beat another big name, but unfortunately he is not getting it.
The Bottom Line: Hard to range how a fight will go between two fighters that are so even and have equal amounts of experience. Chris takes this fight by decision because I believe that Brain will get tentative when fighting in front of so many people for the first time.
When the Ultimate Fighter is over usually a few fighters make it in to the UFC after their fight on the finale. Sometime down the road Joe Silva matches up people form the same show, who didn’t fight on the show, in the UFC after they have had a few wins. This is what has happened with Chris and Kyle in this fight. They came off the show and both won their first few fights and now they are facing each other. From here whoever wins will be put on to fight bigger opponents, while the loser will be relegated to fighting new comers and people on their way out.
Both fighters are well rounded and I believe the fight will be determined by the ground game. Kyle and Chris both have decent standup, but whoever can control the fight on the ground or submit the other fighter will win here. Also, what will play a factor is experience. While they have a similar amount of fights Kyle has been in bigger organizations and fought a little bit tougher competition than Chris has. It will be a good test for both fighters.
The Bottom Line: Experience and ground game play key as Kyle is able to catch Chris after being caught in a submission in the second round. Don’t fear though as Kyle has home field advantage and at 24 Chris will be back.
Old tiger and young cub fight in this fight. Spencer is playing the role of old tiger since he has been around the block for a while. He was thought to be the heir to the lightweight division when he first appeared, but hit a rough patch after losing to Hermes Franca for a number one contenders match. Since that time he has only been 5-3 losing against the cream of the crop in Frankie Edgar, Dennis Siver, and Joe Stevenson. The problem is the fighters he has beaten are not worth noting to much either.
This fight will determine if Ross Pearson is the fighter everyone thought he was coming off the Ultimate Fighter. Ross was thought to be the next big thing like Spencer too, but he wasn’t. He beat his first few opponents including Dennis Siver, but he fell flat when he ran into the gritty fighter Cole Miller. Spencer shares a common opponent in Dennis Siver with Ross, but Spencer lost when he fought him. That does not predict the winner of this fight, but it could help determine who has the advantage.
On the feet is where this fight will most likely be fought. Both fighters don’t love the ground, but have shown to have flair for the standup. The thing is Spencer has an underrated ground game, and it could help him win if he used it. That is not to say that he will not win standing up as he has some very good hand. He would just have more of an advantage on the ground. I don’t think Ross will take it to the ground, but coming off a loss where you essentially got knocked out anything is possible.
The Bottom Line: Spencer should be able to hold his own standing up, and if he uses the ground game he should be able to dictate the pace. I see Spencer getting two round to one over Ross in a split decision win.
Alexander is showing great promise in his fight career. Coming into the UFC he was undefeated and won his first fight. He took on slugger Jared Hamman, in which he showed precise striking and power when he knocked him out. Then he ran into the roadblock who is Phil Davis. In that fight he showed good takedown defense, when he defended against Phil’s shots. Phil himself is a division 1 champion. After the fight, and looking to better himself, Phil took up an offer to train with Phil. From there he showed vast improvement when he dominated veteran Cyrille Diabate in route to a submission win. At 24 years of age I will look to see even more improvement in this fight.
A year is a long time not to fight and will effect James in this fight. When you stop someone by punching them consecutive times with a broken arm, you are only hurting yourself. Furthermore, when you are a striker and you cannot even spar for months then you will surely be lacking something coming into this fight. Hopefully his camp was able to get him ready for this fight, or we will not see the brute who dominated in his debut.
Both fighters have a penchant for knocking people out. Especially Alexander who has 7 knockouts in his 10 wins. They will both look to standup, but even if James hurts Alexander the fight could hit the ground. Alexander has been putting much time into his ground game so I am sure it will show up if the fight gets rough. While this fight last it should be fun to watch.
The Bottom Line: Alexander’s striking is just better than James’ and it will show as he gets a stoppage in the third round.
Two fighters who could have a good career in the UFC but are just getting their chance. Nick has just faced a tremendous amount of torture to his ACL. He has been a strong fighter but plagued with injuries. He needs to stay healthy, but also has to think about his health as he continues to fight. Riki on the other hand has been in the Asian circuit for a long time. He got a chance to fight in the big show when he was brought over to Elite XC. He lost his fight, but I think he was robbed. It was also young in his career as he only had ten fights before then and was fighting someone who had well over twenty. Now he has gone 9-1 since the loss and is ready fro the UFC.
Hard to say who wins this fight and who has the advantage over the other. Most of Nicks fights come from the Ultimate Fighter which is hard to see who good a fighter is because of the conditions outside of the fight like stress, training, and coaches. Fighters are not in their element in the house and it can cause them a loss. He and RIki are similar in that they are not spectacular in one aspect of the game but are good all around. Chris probably has the advantage on the ground and Riki has it standing from a viewer’s perspective. Beyond that slight advantage for one and another they are essentially equal.
The Bottom Line: Ring rust plays a factor as RIki takes the fight after fatigue sets in for Nick. Unanimous decision for RIki at the end of this one.
Anthony Perosh was promised more fights since he fought Mirko Cro Cop a weight class above his own and on short notice. Now he gets his chance to show what he is made of against Tom. Tom himself is not the best competition, but is exciting since he has 9 stoppages in ten wins. Both will need to prove their worth in this fight if they want to stick around much longer.
Tom was a coach for Rampage the last time he coached on the Ultimate Fighter and this is what got him his shot in the UFC. He is able to win a fight standing or on the ground, but the ground is where Anthony is the best. Having a second degree black belt under Carlos Machado is nothing to through caution into the wind for. Tom needs to keep this fight standing up if he wants to win, and not get entangled on the ground.
The Bottom Line: Both are coming off long layoffs and that helps Anthony because he is a trainer. The constant training of coaching will help him as he is able to have less rust in the ring. Look for him to catch Tom with a submission late in the first.
Jason is the case of a fighter with a good record, but with crappy opponents. His opponents outside of Joe Lauzon have a combined record of 55-85. That is not opponents worthy of beating to get a shot in the UFC. When he did fight Joe Lauzon he was absolutely beat down. If Tie wins he does not deserve to be in the UFC. The lucky thing is he won’t. Tie is 12-1 and his only loss was to Danny Downes in his last fight, where his ground game was stifled by Danny’s superior wrestling skill. Jason also hasn’t fought in a little over two years so that is not going to help him in this fight either.
The Bottom Line: Tie gets the takedown and the submission in this fight early in the first round.
Fighting for your career is never fun. Both of these fighters will be fighting for their life in the UFC in this fight. Mark has not won in forever and looks bad in his last fight. His contract itself is a formality from a deal when Pride fell. Chris never lived up to the billing of Lesnar’s main training partner since he has gone 1-2 in the UFC. His only win coming over constant punching bag Tim Hague, in a fight most felt he lost. Chris needs to win this fight by taking it to the ground. Given mark does not have the standup he once possessed, but why chance it? Mark would want this fight on the feet since he has been shown to have a very weak ground game now and days.
The Bottom Line: Mark is a shot fighter and it showed in his last loss over a relative no one. He has been losing for years and don’t expect it to stop here as Chris shuts him down en route to a dominate decision win.
I don’t think there is much of a competition in this fight because Macej is a better fighter. He has beaten tougher competition. I know that Curt beat Ross Pearson, but that was a while ago. Macej destroyed Anthony Njokuani who is a better striker than Curt is. Also Macej has a better ground game. I don’t think that Macej will be able to stop Curt since Spencer Fisher couldn’t, but he will win.
The Bottom Line: Macej by unanimous decision.
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