As a featured columnist for the Chicago Bulls, and one of the more read writers, I get asked questions frequently in regards to a trade for players like OJ Mayo or Courtney Lee and whether I think it is in best interest to make a trade.
Fundamentally, I think that right now it is in the Bulls' best interest to seek a shooting guard through free agency for two reasons.
First, it makes more sense in terms of "net value" as it regards to players. Secondly, it makes more sense in terms of the net value in terms of how it regards to the salary cap. Third, with the shortened season, it makes more sense in regards to the team chemistry.
The first reason it makes more sense to add a player through free agency is that you can simply add a player without losing any players. The Bulls can use a mid-level exception (MLE), which would be $5 million to add any player who will sign.
Some seem confused and think they would be restricted in who they could sign. Others have had some confusion in regards to the rules for the mid-level exception. According to the terms of the current proposal on the table, the MLE would be $5 million for three years.
That means that a team can offer any veteran player a deal of up to three years for $5 million, without penalty, even if they are over the cap.
There are several veteran players available for the Bulls to chose from. The Bulls are the ideal team for any shooting guard in hopes of winning a title right now. There are several reasons for that, but the biggest is they get to start for a contender and immediately step in as the No. 2 offense.
The shooting guard would get to play in the third largest market in the US, and be an instant hero in Chicago before they ever even step on the court. Certainly, in terms of endorsement money, they could do a lot worse. This would help to offset whatever losses came in taking a salary hit.
Most importantly, they would have a very real opportunity to win a championship. The Bulls were a shooting guard away from getting to the finals last year. Sure, maybe they could go play in Miami and have a chance of winning one too, but not as a starter.
I think it's safe to say the starting shooting guard in Miami is pretty well-established.
Finally, because of the amnesty clause, there will be several shooting guards bought out relatively soon. That means that the market will have more shooting guards available, and by the rules of supply and demand that means the cost of the shooting guard will go down.
There aren't any "max level" shooting guards in free agency right now. In fact, there might not be many worth more than around $8 million a year.
The MLE might be enough to get the Bulls almost any two-guard they want, particularly when you factor in the endorsement potential in Chicago vs. just about anywhere else.
In terms of playing situation, the Bulls right now are the best situation for anyone. In terms of money, the MLE is plenty. The Bulls could probably add a nice option through free agency. Perhaps they wouldn't offer the "perfect" option, but they could add a very good option.
When you're factoring in a trade, in a way, you are ruling out that possibility you almost have to mentally tack on that hidden extra cost. It's not just Taj Gibson and Kyle Korver for OJ Mayo, it's Gibson, Korver and Rip Hamilton, or Jason Richardson, or Jamal Crawford for OJ Mayo.
We can obtain a player without losing any players through free agency. We can't do that through a trade. That's a big hidden cost.
There's a kind of "trick" to managing the cap. The goal isn't to stay under the cap. The goal is to get as far over the cap as you can without going into the luxury tax. The reason for that is that having that "extra" salary means that you have that "extra" value you can use in trades, salary or whatever to make your team better.
In essence a $68 million is better than a $63 million team (theoretically). Adding the salary works in Chicago's benefit in terms of the cap. Once you're over, you're over.
Now I know what some are thinking. They are thinking about Rose and wondering how we are going to keep him. Again, the exceptions will apply. The Bulls will be able to sign Rose with a max contract regardless of whether they are over the cap.
Others worry over the expiring contracts of Omer Asik and Taj Gibson. They want to rush into a trade while they "still have value." To them I say, settle down. The Bulls have team options on Gibson for two more years. Asik will be a restricted free agent, and the Bulls will be able to match any contracts without a penalty.
On the other hand, if the Bulls do try a sign-and-trade, they are going to have make a trade and then sign their backup big men to minimum level contracts.
With the injury history that Carlos Boozer and Omer Asik have, it's a very good chance that that backup (whether it be center or power forward) will have some starts this season.
If worse comes to worse, the Bulls would still have Korver in their pocket they can combine with Asik/Gibson to trade for a big man if they need to.
Signing a shooting guard at free agent does nothing to negate a future trade for Gibson or Asik, but if you're going to trade them, trade big for big, not big for small.
The bottom line is that the best way to manage the salary cap is to sign a free agent. It works better for the shooting guard situation and it works better for the big man situation.
The current collection of players has been together for a year already, and they gelled together remarkably well. The "Bench Mob" was the best defensive unit in the NBA last season. In fact they keyed two comebacks by the Bulls last year.
Thibodeau's defense combined with the defensive abilities of the players were the main reasons why. However, that defense does take time to learn. Changing up the players will throw a real wrench in the works.
There will only be a two-week preseason. That's not a lot of time to learn the system. There won't be a lot of practice time during the season either.
Why risk this if you don't have to? Adding a free agent does nothing to mess that up. In fact, if you do add a shooting guard, when the bench is on the floor, you can put Keith Bogans or Kyle Korver at the two, move Ronnie Brewer to the three, and that in turn would give Luol Deng a little more time to rest.
Cutting down on Deng's minutes might mean a better Deng in the postseason. With the 72-game schedule, there will be fewer games played, but the teams will be playing a much more condensed schedule. Cutting down Deng's minutes will be critical.
Weakening the bench, by contrast could have the opposite effect, forcing the starters to play more minutes.
Courtney Lee and OJ Mayo might be nice players, but I'm not sure they are good enough to account for all of that. Even Arron Afflalo wouldn't fit that, though I can almost see doing it for him, if they only gave up one of their bigs.
In general, though, my thought is that the best way to approach the shooting guard situation is through free agency. There are enough good options there that would be just addition without subtraction. I'd rather have that than digging one hole to fill another.
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