After nice early runs by the upstart Lions and Bills, the rankings are beginning to look like most people thought they would back at the beginning of the season, with the notable exception of the 49ers. Before Sunday there appeared to be about seven legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but that number drops by two with the news that Texans QB Matt Schaub will miss the rest of the season with a foot injury and Matt Leinart -- he of the hot tub party and no pass attempts since 2009 -- will replace him, and with another baffling road loss by the Ravens, who can't seem to sustain the fury they bring whenever they meet the Steelers.
On to the rankings ...
1. Green Bay Packers (9-0, previous rank: 1): If the NFL has turned into a real-life version of Madden '11, as columnist Jason Whitlock wrote this week, then Mike McCarthy is holding the controller.
2. San Francisco 49ers (8-1, 2): The Niners have allowed a league-low 138 points, forced 23 turnovers and committed only eight. That formula will produce a lot of wins.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3, 6): Players come and go, but one constant remains with the Steelers -- they are most dangerous when the rest of the league begins to count them out as contenders. With the possible exception of a Dec. 19 road date with the 49ers, there isn't a game left on the schedule the Steelers should lose.
4. New Orleans Saints (7-3, 5): When things are going your way, opponents go for it on fourth down at their own 29-yard-line in overtime, as the Falcons did Sunday. After a rough stretch that included losses to the Bucs in Week 6 and the Rams in Week 8, things are going the Saints' way again.
5. New England Patriots (6-3, 7): The Patriots couldn't have picked a better time to play unquestionably their most complete game of the season in a 37-16 victory over the Jets. The AFC East is now theirs to lose.
6. Houston Texans (7-3, 9): The Texans have survived -- and even thrived -- without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. Surviving without Schaub probably is too much to ask.
7. Baltimore Ravens (6-3, 3): The Ravens have proven two things so far: They can beat the league's elite teams, and they can lose to some of its worst ones. It's tough to call them a contender after losses to Jacksonville and Seattle.
8. Chicago Bears (6-3, 10): The Bears have forced 12 turnovers during their current four-game winning streak, and QB Jay Cutler, while not spectacular, has thrown only six interceptions after throwing 42 in his first two seasons in Chicago.
9. Detroit Lions (6-3, 4): Has the magic run out on the Lions' incredible start? It's too soon to tell. But with a finishing stretch that includes the Packers (twice), Saints, Chargers and Raiders, their margin for error has become extremely slim.
10. New York Jets (5-4, 8): Mark Sanchez (56.7 completion percentage, nine interceptions) isn't playing like an elite QB. But the bigger problem is a running game that is ranked 24th in the league and hasn't been effective enough to allow the Jets to control games.
11. New York Giants (6-3, 11): The Giants appear to be the best team in the NFC East at this point. We should find out for sure over their next four games (vs. Philadelphia, at New Orleans, vs. Green Bay, at Dallas).
12. Tennessee Titans (5-4, 17): Despite three losses in the past five weeks, the Titans are within striking distance of the 7-3 Texans in the AFC South. But games this week at Atlanta, next week at home against Tampa Bay and the following week at Buffalo will all be critical if they're going to have a chance to make their Jan. season finale in Houston meaningful.
13. Dallas Cowboys (5-4, 18): One week the Cowboys look like a Super Bowl contender, and the next they look like the league's most dysfunctional group of underachievers. Still, they appear to be the only NFC East team capable of catching the Giants.
14. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3, 12): Out of the frying pan and into ... M&T Bank Stadium. Andy Dalton looked like a rookie at times against the Steelers on Sunday, and now he gets to face a Ravens team that should be seething over its letdown-game loss in Seattle.
15. Buffalo Bills (5-4, 13): Bills' record before the team gave Ryan Fitzpatrick a contract extension: 4-2: Bills' record since then: 1-2. I'm not suggesting the decision to make Fitzpatrick their franchise quarterback was a mistake by the Bills, but they've clearly lost the mojo they showed in beating the Patriots and Eagles early in the season. Now they're in a fight to stay in the AFC wild card race.
16. Atlanta Falcons (5-4, 14): Coach Mike Smith gambled and lost by going for it on fourth down from his own 29 against the Saints. It reeked of desperation, which is surprising given that the Falcons had won three straight going into the game.
17. Oakland Raiders (5-4, 20): After back-to-back division losses, the Raiders might have saved their season with last week's victory over the Chargers. Now they need to find a way to hold it together until they play their final two remaining AFC West games against the Chiefs and Chargers in Weeks 16 and 17.
18. San Diego Chargers (4-5, 15): Nothing in their past four games -- all losses -- suggests the Chargers are capable of putting together a winning streak. Yet as bad as they've been they're only a game behind in the AFC West with enough talent on the roster to win the division.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5, 16): The Bucs are in danger of taking a step back in coach Raheem Morris' third season, and not all of it can be blamed on QB Josh Freeman's growing pains. Freeman has thrown 13 interceptions, but only one the past two weeks, and the Bucs have lost both of those games.
20. Kansas City Chiefs (4-5, 21): In four of their five losses the Chiefs have scored a total of 23 points. In their four wins they scored 111. As the offense goes, so goes coach Todd Haley's team, which probably isn't good news considering the Chiefs visit the Steelers, Patriots and Bears the next three weeks.
21. Denver Broncos (4-5, 22): The NFL's contrarian team earned its third win in QB Tim Tebow's four starts by completing two passes and running a version of the veer. Obviously this can't continue, but it's fun to watch the Broncos silence all the talking heads who believe a throwback offense can't score points and win games at this level.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6, 23): Credit general manager Gene Smith for building a defense that ranks fourth overall and has kept the Jaguars in games by holding five opponents to 17 or fewer points. If Smith and coach Jack Del Rio can hang onto their jobs long enough to re-tool the offense the Jaguars might not be that far from turning things around.
23. Arizona Cardinals (3-6, 28): John Skelton and Larry Fitzgerald found a nice rhythm against the Eagles, which had to be encouraging for Cardinals fans who have suffered through a disappointing season.
24. Philadelphia Eagles (3-6, 19): It's all over in Philly. The question no longer is whether the Eagles can salvage their lost season. It's whether Andy Reid and Desean Jackson will be around to help them try to rebound next year.
25. Minnesota Vikings (2-7, 24): The rest of this season is about figuring out whether the Vikings made the right pick with rookie QB Christian Ponder, because they're not catching the Packers, Lions or Bears in the NFC North.
26. Carolina Panthers (2-7, 25): Up until Sunday, the Panthers had been competitive in every game, losing five times by one touchdown or less. Then the Titans throttled them 30-3, didn't allow Cam Newton to complete a pass longer than 19 yards and held Steve Smith to five catches for 33 yards. Ouch.
27. Seattle Seahawks (3-6, 29): Pete Carroll's team has wins against the Giants and Ravens, two likely playoff teams, and only one truly puzzling loss, at Cleveland. Getting the Rams twice and the Redskins over the next four weeks gives them a chance to get closer to .500.
28. Miami Dolphins (2-7, 30): The Dolphins emerged from the softest stretch of their schedule with a pair of wins that helps ease the sting of all of those close losses they suffered the first seven weeks.
29. St. Louis Rams (2-7, 31): Sunday's 13-12 win in Cleveland was a gift, but the Rams have been more competitive the past three weeks with two wins (including the 31-21 stunner over the Saints) and an overtime loss to the Cardinals.
30. Cleveland Browns (3-6, 26): Patient management and a patient first-year coach are willing to see the process of rebuilding the Browns through all of its painful steps. What's missing is a patient fan base.
31. Washington Redskins (3-6, 27): They've tried the John Beck-for-Rex Grossman-for-John Beck swaps and the results haven't changed. It looks like Mike Shanahan's long-term starting quarterback isn't on the roster.
32. Indianapolis Colts (0-10, 32): The Colts have been outscored by 169 points and have a three-loss lead in the race for the No. 1 pick in the draft, but they apparently aren't tanking the season after switching QBs from Curtis Painter to Dan Orlovsky on Sunday. Not that it made a difference.
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