The outcome of the Progressive Gator Bowl Jan. 1 might not matter much for the fortunes of the two coaches, Dan Mullen at Mississippi State and Rich Rodriguez at Michigan.
Win or lose, Mullen will remain beloved in Starkville as the coach who brought the Bulldogs to their first New Year's Day Bowl since 1999 and orchestrated victories over Florida and Georgia on the way to an 8-4 record.
"We're excited about the opportunity we have ahead of us and we're excited that Dan will be a part of that process," said MSU athletic director Scott Stricklin, after Mullen quashed rumors that he would leave for jobs at Florida or Miami earlier this month.
And win or lose, Rodriguez might still not survive long into the new year, with speculation rampant that athletic director Dave Brandon will take advantage of a clause in Rodriguez' contract that will save the school $1.5 million and fire Rodriguez soon after the Gator Bowl — despite a 7-5 regular-season record that reflected improvement over his first two years (3-9 in 2008; 5-7 in 2009).
The fan base at Michigan, which has won more football games than any school in history, doesn't view 7-5 seasons with any great enthusiasm. They have bought almost all of the 12,500 Gator Bowl tickets allotted to the school, but patience is wearing thin with Rodriguez, who has yet to produce a victory over Ohio State or even be competitive in "The Game."
Running afoul of NCAA rules regarding practices didn't help. The violations, self-reported by Michigan, were the first time the football program had been socked with "major" infractions.
Rodriguez tried to dismiss the speculation as part of the coaching "silly season." But beyond a statement reminding the media that he evaluates all coaches after their seasons end, Brandon has remained silent on the issue and Rodriguez admitted that crawling inside the shell of bowl preparation is an escape from the nagging doubts on his future.
And when asked if he had to win the Gator Bowl to keep his job, Rodriguez said, "I don't think so ... we've made progress."
But Rodriguez seems resigned to the fact that things might be beyond his control at this point.
"There's a process our AD [Brandon] is going through and I have to respect that," Rodriguez said. "Around Schembechler Hall [the football offices], between players and coaches, everything is positive. It's a little bit different to be in this situation, but I'm as confident now as I was a couple of years ago. It's just taken a little bit longer to get where I wanted."
Rodriguez might not get that extra time. On the recent ESPN show, "Bowl Mania," analyst Robert Smith — a former Ohio State running back — predicted that Rodriguez would be fired and said Michigan's 0-12 record under Rodriguez against Big Ten opponents with winning conference records was "just unacceptable."
In a poll conducted by the Detroit News, 35 percent of readers said Rodriguez should be fired and only 32 percent wanted to give him another year. Last spring, a similar poll by the News showed 51 percent support for Rodriguez.
Rodriguez himself engages in gallows humor. During a recent appearance in Jacksonville, he told a crowd of Gator Bowl board members about Michigan's historic football tradition, "and I get reminded of that every day, trust me on that."
Rodriguez said the depth of the Big Ten took him a little by surprise as he's tried to grow into the job.
"I'm like everyone else," he said. "I figured you go to Michigan, throw them [the team] out there and win nine games. It didn't work that way. The Big Ten is really deep ... but we're on our way."
Maybe. But Mullen certainly is.
The former University of Florida offensive coordinator is the youngest coach in the Southeastern Conference and the school has every intention of keeping him there if current contract-extension negotiations continue to go well.
All four of the Bulldogs' losses this season were to SEC West opponents who are also in bowls on Jan. 1 or later.
Mullen said instilling a new attitude at Mississippi State had to start from within among the players.
"They thought they wanted to be champions, thought they wanted to be winners, but really didn't know how to go about doing it," he said. "We laid a plan for success to follow and they've bought into everything we've asked them."
That plan, borrowing heavily from the Urban Meyer model, involves attention to detail, leaving nothing to chance on offense, defense or special teams and a desire for excellence that goes beyond the football field.
"We want them to be champions in the classroom, champions in the community and champions in the offseason," Mullen said. "Then, champions on the field on Saturdays."
Mullen also has done it with an energy that Stricklin said is infectious - and necessary, with the job of raising funds for renovating and expanding the second-oldest stadium used by an NCAA Bowl Subdivision team.
"Dan has an 'It' factor, a charisma that is a departure from our model of coaches in the past," Stricklin said. "The change was been helpful. The previous model was a pretty boring brand. Jackie Sherrill might have been the most lively of the bunch. But Dan brings a ton of energy. We've got to be about selling and creating a brand that's fun and exciting, and Dan embodies that."
That is why Mullen's future won't be affected by whether the Bulldogs win or lose Jan. 1 at EverBank Field.
The same might be said of Rodriguez, but in a vastly different way.
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