Most NBA scouts and general managers will tell you itÂ’s way too early to gauge who will be the top pick in the 2011 draft. And they are right.
So letÂ’s pretend the college basketball season ended today. LetÂ’s pretend the draft is next week. And letÂ’s pretend scouts and GMs must go on what they have seen so far.
Who would be No. 1 in that pretend world?
Well, even in fantasyland, there still seems to be no definitive answer.
Some in league circles say Duke point guard Kyrie Irving is the man – but Irving is only a freshman and played in just eight games before suffering a complicated toe injury. It is expected to keep him out for the rest of the season.
Of course, one of those eight games was against Michigan State, where Irving did his best Derrick Rose imitation by scoring 31 points on 8-for-12 shooting. So itÂ’s safe to say the young man already has left quite an impression.
Others lean toward another freshman, Baylor forward Perry Jones III. He is 6-feet-11 and is said to be more Tracy McGrady than Kevin Garnett, a smooth athlete with all-around skills.
Still others mention names such as Ohio State forward Jared Sullinger, Arizona forward Derrick Williams or even Turkey native and Kentucky center Enes Kanter – who has yet to play a game because of eligibility concerns.
ThereÂ’s also the theory someone other than the names mentioned will play himself into contention via the NCAA tournament or pre-draft workouts. And that might be the case more this season than in years past.
But as of today, there are four or five true candidates at most. Who goes No. 1 will depend largely on what happens between now and June, and which team is picking first and what it needs. While no one prospect is viewed as The Next LeBron James or Kobe Bryant, there are a number of young guns who are expected to provide immediate help for struggling lottery teams.
And that, my friends, is really what being No. 1 is all about.
Of the scouts and GMs polled, Irving was the most common pick to go No. 1. But as one talent evaluator warned, itÂ’s possible Irving separated himself by having not played (and therefore, not exposing his weaknesses) as much as the other guys.
Either way, Irving isnÂ’t as fast with the ball as guys like Rose or WashingtonÂ’s John Wall, but he is very quick and has shown that he can control the game. Irving is also very poised and remarkably unselfish, yet he is crafty enough to create shots for himself and score when needed.
All we really need to see now is if he can do all of that as well against the Los Angeles Lakers as he does against the Princeton Tigers. Most believe he can.
ItÂ’s been a long time since Baylor has had a draft prospect who is so highly thought of.
OK, Baylor never has had a prospect who is so highly thought of – as Jones is an exceptional athlete with long arms and a soft shooting touch. That might make him sound kind of soft, but that’s hardly the case. He also can mix it up underneath.
But just like anyone, there are a few questions. For one, Jones and his high school team underachieved during his senior season. For another, he has a reputation for coasting through games at Baylor. Not because he doesnÂ’t care, but more because he never forces anything (and perhaps isnÂ’t quite aggressive enough).
Some scouts worry that he is still too young, that he still thinks he can get by on pure athleticism and talent alone. If Jones wants to be No. 1, that needs to change.
SullingerÂ’s situation is an odd one, because the more Ohio State wins (which is a lot), the less appealing he seems to become to NBA scouts. There really is no rhyme or reason for that, except for perhaps that he is becoming more scrutinized, with every aspect of his game being dissected.
Regardless, Sullinger is a true throwback when it comes to big men. In other words, he plays with his back to the basket, receiving passes and muscling his way to the hoop. But what sets him apart are strong fundamentals (read: passing out of double teams), a will to succeed and a better-than-expected outside touch.
Granted, heÂ’s not going to block many shots at the NBA level, and he probably wonÂ’t be able to just overpower other power forwards, either. But he is a heady player with a great passion for the game and decent athleticism.
Many have compared him to Elton Brand, and a few others to Paul Millsap – and Sullinger is likely somewhere in between. One evaluator even suggested Sullinger should give college another year and cement his hold on No. 1. Because right now, he appears to be a long shot to be selected first.
Jonas Valanciunas, 6-11, C, 18 years old, Lithuania
Since you can only compare international prospects to international pros (seriously, it’s the law), Valanciunas has been mentioned in the same sentences as Dirk Nowitzki – but very well could be something closer to Andrea Bargnani.
While Bargnani is a good pro, heÂ’s not had near the career of Nowitzki. So like Sullinger, thereÂ’s a little bit of hesitation regarding Valanciunas.
On the plus side, Valanciunas does play a Euro-brand of basketball. In other words, he has a deft shooting touch, heÂ’s a strong passer and he is more athletic than anyone gives him credit for. He is also an underrated shot-blocker and rebounder.
On the downside, Valanciunas is very young and difficult to evaluate, especially considering his current competition is about on par with most NCAA Division III programs.
But like a lot of others potentially entering the 2011 draft, there will be plenty of reasons to like (and dislike) him more before late June.
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