Saturday, July 30, 2011

Utah or BYU: 5 Bold Predictions of Which Team Has a Better Future

Counted as one of the fiercest rivalries in college football, the Utah-BYU Holy War seems to never end and even though the two teams will not be in the same conference this year, the animosity and genuine dislike of each other has only grown stronger.  

If it's a Holy War, which team's new direction is really more in the "right"?  With Utah joining the Pac-12 and BYU going Independent in football, which team is positioned better for the future?

If a war is really raging on, which team will vanquish it's foe in the hearts, minds and souls of their followers, the nation, and most importantly, claim bragging rights within the state of Utah.

I've listed five measures of future success for each team, and which team WINS that battle in this long-standing war. 

When both schools were in the WAC and the MWC, they focused recruitment primarily on a few western states and within their home state of Utah.  They also focused heavily on pockets within California, Arizona, Hawaii, and even the Polynesian Islands--as the Mormon Church has a strong membership base in the island, and both Utah and BYU could focus on that relationship of relatives living within the state or church/school affiliation.  However, the better recruits in those areas usually chose Pac-12 schools over WAC or MWC schools.

Utah now will be playing games in the six states comprising the Pac-12 so instantly their recruiting influence will increase to these areas.  Additionally, Pac-12 membership brings with it a cache that most other conferences can't claim--post season play in the Rose Bowl and an AQ birth in the BCS. Additionally, a new TV contract and a conference network to launch in 2012 will go a long way to boost Utah's image among potential recruits, if only within the Pac-12 conference states.

However, while the Pac-12 is a big draw for a potential recruit, Utah will be competing against even bigger brands than their own--USC, UCLA, Stanford and Oregon to name a few.  So while the recruiting and prestige pool increases, so does the competition.  A little fish just joined a big pond.

BYU, on the other hand, has no conference geographical affiliation to draw upon, making the entire nation their recruiting base.  Assuming BYU is successful in scheduling named schools in different parts of the country, their brand and exposure will widen proportionately.  

An obvious upside to Independence is their 8 year contract with ESPN where at least 10 of the Cougar's games per year will be on the WWL of sports.  What will that mean to BYU?  Boise State's national prominence, in part, was due to the fact that most weeks their games were broadcast by ESPN.  With Boise State joining the MWC, they leave ESPN and it looks like BYU will soon take on the role of ESPN's showpiece team.  ESPN's exposure on national recruiting will be significant.

Finally, while before BYU was shackled to a middling conference, oftentimes they would miss out on a Mormon athlete living in different parts of the country that may have chosen BYU if not for the conference, distance from home, and lack of national TV exposure.  BYU should now attract a much larger portion of those recruits--and non-Mormon athletes that like the atmosphere and morals of BYU.

VERDICT:  BYU will benefit more as an Independent with regards to recruiting.

BYU and Utah found out how important TV exposure is when they left their ESPN backed WAC conference to create the MWC and The MTN network.  To put it another way, both teams now know that unless someone is in the forest to see, hear and watch on TV, no one knows a tree has fallen.  Both teams basically have lived in TV oblivion for the past 10 years.

But now both teams leave the constraints of The MTN and have bright TV futures.

BYU announced their Independence on the same day they announced their 8 year contract with ESPN to broadcast most of their home games.  They also announced that ESPN would allow them all rights to rebroadcast those games on BYU tv.  Furthermore, they introduced their new state of the art Broadcast facility and traveling HD van to the world during the 2011 Media Day.  Even ESPN seems impressed with their new facilities.

To date, BYU has 10 games scheduled for ESPN's family of networks in 2011.  More may follow. The impact of this TV exposure will positively impact all aspects of the football program.

Additionally, BYU tv's broadcast, and rebroadcast (ad nasium) within the 60 million households that currently carry the channel will help to spread the BYU brand.  But this impact will be felt not only in the US but internationally, as BYU's goal is have BYU tv in as many countries as possible.  And within a short time-frame.   What this will do for recruitment and fan following will be tremendous.

Utah is also on much firmer TV footing as a member of the Pac-12.  A huge multi-year TV contract was recently announced by the conference.  And while 2011 may not find the Utes in a better position than being on the Mtn, (most of their games will be in Versus or KJZZ), they have the future to look to for solice.

Beginning 2012, the broadcast potential of Utah football will greatly improve.  The new Pac-12 station will be launched, with aspirations of attracting a national audience, and then smaller regional networks to support local schools, i.e. Utah and Colorado.  So even if Utah is not selected to be shown on the national stage, their games will be broadcast regionally.

Utah's challenge now is to earn their national TV exposure within a conference that has traditionally focused most of its attention on a few schools, namely USC, UCLA or more recently Oregon. However, if they don't do well, they'll be relegated to the Washington State, Cal, and ASU category of few-and-far-between national TV status.

VERDICT:  BYU will have more TV exposure than Utah in 2011 and the foreseeable future.

If the contest were between BYU and the Pac-12, the Pac-12 would win, hands down.  But the question is between BYU and Utah, which school will have the most impact on a national stage.

BYU, as an Independent, is now mentioned with Navy, Army and more importantly Notre Dame.  So even though they don't play within a conference, their accomplishments will be measured against these three schools.  Being that the service academies are institutions amongst themselves, BYU will most often be compared to Notre Dame--already tagged the Notre Dame of the West.  If BYU can win, and more importantly if Notre Dame can win, both schools will take on a strong national position.

And if the conference landscape continues to shift, and if other teams consider independence, BYU will be used as a model.

More importantly, if BYU is able to build a couple of winning seasons and experience bowl success in the first two years of independence, evening breaking into a BCS game, their role on the national stage will be much more significant than it has been in the past.

Oh, and don't forget what national TV exposure can do to create a national stage.

Utah's national influence, by the simple fact that they are now a member of an established BCS conference, will begin to shrink.

As one of the first BCS bowl-busters, Utah's national position rose steadily.  Utah (and Boise State) was used as the poster child for all that was wrong with the BCS.  Utah was able to show the nation what a non-AQ schools could do, and why the inequities in college football were so wrong.

But that is all behind them now.  They are now one of 12 teams in a stellar conference.  Utah's challenge now is let their light shine amongst many bright stars.

VERDICT:  By their fearless call for Independence, BYU now and in the future will have greater national influence.

When it comes to recruiting, it's not what you do, but what you can do for me.  Athletic facilities are a part of what big name schools are doing to attract those athletes.

It's all a chicken and egg scenario.  If you have good facilities, you attract good athletes.  If you have good athletes, you play and win important games.  If you win games, fans come and watch.  If you have a large local and national following, you attract big money.  If you have big money, you can build bigger and better facilities.  And with bigger and better facilities, you attract bigger and better athletes.  It's how the game is played in today's college football.

BYU, being owned and operated by the Mormon Church, has traditionally been on the conservative side of spending.  Dollars running the school are tithed by it's members, so the board of directors has a fiscal responsibility to spend wisely.

And while BYU's facilities are better than most schools, they are not equivalent to some of the big name, prestige institutions across the country.  The question for BYU is better than most going to be good enough in the future?

Utah, on the other hand, has now joined a league that expects greatness in everything...including facilities.  The question at hand is can Utah catch up to it's peers?  And how will that happen?

From the looks and plans announced by school leadership, they plan to do everything in their power to not only compete against Pac-12 schools athletic facilities, but to exceed them in certain areas.

And with future cash inflows from TV contracts and other revenue sources, it looks like their plan is well founded.

VERDICT:  Utah will ultimately win the Athletic Facilities War

Whether you're "A Utah Man am I, Sir", or about to "Rise and Shout, the Cougars are Out", you most likely find yourself on one side of the fence or the other.

To say the two schools have a strong, and competitively, dislike for each other would be putting it mildly.  A Holy War of sorts doesn't rage on for close to 100 years without a strong feeling that one side is MORE right than the other. 

BYU's large national following is in part sports craze, and part cheering for the Faith.  Since the school is an offshoot of the Mormon Church, school, church and faith go hand in hand--much like a Catholic may have minimal interest in athletics, but still Notre Dame is their team because of their Faith.

When a BYU fan prays for his team to win, you have to believe he's praying to the same person he does as he knells before during night prayers.

On the other hand, IF a Utah fan prays for a team win, its most likely is directed to that Sports God in the sky that shines down on the team in red and white.  

Both prayers may have an even chance of being answered.  But each fan may thinks they are praying to THEIR Guy.

But outside of the in-state holier-than-thou rivalry, which team sports the most loyal fan base?

If attendance records of football during good and bad years are indicators, BYU does a much better job of filling stadiums during their off years.

If rabble-rousing and noise is an indicator, Utah's student section is almost unrivaled in college football.

If name calling and the use of four-letter words are indicators, again Utah takes it by a long shot.  (Just ask Max Hall).

If national following and the ability to fill up away stadiums is an indicator, BYU wins.  Most schools quickly find out that scheduling BYU on the road is a sure way to fill up a stadium.

So in the end, while home grown enthusiasm and creative use of four-letter words, face paint, and disrespect for the opposing team generates a huge amount of team loyalty, a better indicator of a true fan is if they stick with the team through thick and thin, and if they stay loyal to the program long after they've left the institution.

VERDICT:  BYU has a more loyal fan base (although Utah has a more vocal fan base)

The football landscapes of Utah and BYU will change dramatically come September 2011. Each team will enter a new world of teams, challenges, obstacles, rivalries and opportunities.  

When they meet on the field on September 17th, they will have tested their team's prowess only once or twice. Regardless of their respective win-loss record at that time, this game will hold a dramatic impact on each team's success.

Winning a Pac-12 championship and a loss to BYU would minimize the achievement.

A loss to Utah yet going on to a double-digit win season and BCS birth would taint BYU's season.

The BYU-Utah game is important to both sides, regardless of conference affiliation or lack of it, win-loss records, player injuries or coaching changes. It's the one game in the season each team wants in their win column.

So while BYU's future in four of the five areas mentioned looks a bit more promising than Utah's, both teams have the ability to achieve goals and recognition and achievements never possible as rivals in the WAC or MWC.

Come September 17th, we'll see who's able to carry the bragging rights by winning the Holy War of 2011.

Source: http://bleacherreport.com

No comments:

Post a Comment